Ross Perot Charts: How I Learned to be a Housing Blogger from Ross Perot.
Try for a second to flash back to 1992. What were you doing back then? Like many during this time, you may have been feeling some of the pinch from the 1990-91 recession. Even though recessions may have exact dates, their impact is powerful years before and after the official dates. Look at our current situation. Technically we are not in a recession according to government data but many would disagree with this assessment.
You also may recall the first gulf war which lasted from August of 1990 through February of 1991. The similarities between the early 1990s and today are striking. You may also recall that a unique Texas oil Electronic Data Systems founder and billionaire named Ross Perot entered into the presidential race of 1992. Not only did this character enter the race but he ran on a platform talking about the national debt and deficits of all things. At one point in June, late in race if you put that into 2008 context, Perot was up in the polls against Bush and Clinton.
You may also recall his zany charts and old school presentations:
*Pre-PowerPoint era
Sadly at this time my interest in economics and business was not present. I recall thinking, “man, this guy is nuts but he does make sense! What is up with all these charts?” Now, 16 years later as I look at my own writing and efforts to “spread the truth” I realize that I have taken techniques that Ross Perot once employed. That is, using charts, graphs, and hard numbers to drive the point home. Incredibly, that is one of the reasons many housing and finance blogs online have done so well and have siphoned off a good amount of traffic and readership from mainstream media outlets.
Many of the points that Perot argued about during the campaign really didn’t come home to roost until this decade. He wasn’t wrong. Just early in his predictions. Yet his arguments during this time did ensure that the key factor determining the election was the economy. As we look at the current candidates, I am a bit unsatisfied at the discussion over the economy. The majority of polls tell us that the economy is the number one pressing issue on the minds of voters. Yet here we are arguing about the candidates wives or trying to figure out why someone didn’t wear a lapel pin. It is absurd.
Well fear not my friends! Ross Perot is back on the scene. He isn’t running for President but he is bringing those charts back in his Perot Charts website launched this week:
*Click on picture to go to website
When I first heard of the site I must admit that I found it hilarious. My first reaction was that he was going to try to jump back into the fray of things. The site essentially is an argument of why if we continue down our current path, the United States is going to face a harsh economic winter. He does am amazing job with his charts highlighting the deficit, government spending, and explaining what would otherwise be very complicated themes in an easy format. I tip my hat to him for putting this up. If you have about an hour to peruse the charts and read some of the information, you will have a better grasp of the economy.
He reaches a fact based conclusion at the end that some hard choices will be made in order to combat this economic tipping point. Either taxes will need to be raised, spending cuts made, or a combination of both. Politically it seems like we will see a mixture of both. Some of the charts are downright scary like the ballooning mandatory expenses of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid given our massive booming in retirees. From his Monday press release we are told:
“The economic crisis facing America today is far greater than anything since the Great Depression,” said Perot. “Our federal government continues to spend us deeper into debt. The American people must get directly involved and demand an end to deficit spending. This website will provide information for citizens to do just that.”
Like the economic charts Perot employed in his 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, which served as snapshots of complex economic issues presented in simple terms, PerotCharts.com features the latest official government figures about the real conditions of our economy for everyone to see and consider. The site is designed to be a reservoir of information about the economy, and provides an accurate look at where the money comes from and where it goes.”
Oh no! I’ve become Ross Perot. Bwahahaha! In all seriousness, the site is a very useful tool to look at important charts that will impact our country’s future. He makes a point in the site that some of the information simply doesn’t go well in our nano-second media culture. He is absolutely right. It’ll take you at least 30 minutes or so to read through some of the charts and for you to arrive at your own conclusions. Can you imagine McCain or Obama using charts in their campaigns? I just don’t see it happening.
Hopefully with third party candidates getting some exposure and highlighting major issues such as the Federal Reserve, budget deficits, and other major economic themes the two primary candidates will take heed of this in the upcoming months. The public is demanding something be done about the economy. This is the time to enact a solid foundation to protect our future. Whatever your thoughts may be about Ross Perot, the issues in 1992 are here and nothing has been done in 16 long years. We’ve gone through a technology bubble and a housing bubble. Now we are confronted with major government debt and mandatory expenses that will only balloon in the next few years. This time, we can’t push it off until tomorrow.
Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubble’s Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information
Subscribe to feed
21 Responses to “Ross Perot Charts: How I Learned to be a Housing Blogger from Ross Perot.”
Well, it’s simple: we need to choose between funding a military at $1 trillion annually vs. providing for our citizen’s needs. Cut the military to $200 billion/yr (still greater than every other nation on earth) and then let’s talk.
Would my “annoying pedant” score double if I were to point out that Ross Perot made his fortune in computer software, not oil?
>> Cod Peace
Cutting the military by 80% is not a solution. People tend to think of the military as just $1 Billion bombers and Multi-billion dollar ships. “Sure, cut those expensive items, save the money, and pay for grandma’s social security.” The military does more than just buy equipment and go to Iraq and Afghanistan. Cutting the military will put not only military people out of work, but will also put many civilians out of work as well. Do you really want to put another 1.1 million military people out of work? Now you are talking 6.2% unemployment.
Disclosure: I work in the military as a civilian contractor. Yes, the military can undergo cuts (our department did 2 years ago). Just not 80% cuts.
Another non-solution is depending on the government for all your needs. Sure, promising everything under the sun buys votes for politicians, but at some point we cannot buy retirement and health care for everyone.
My solution is simple. First, cut spending in S.S., Medicare, Medicaid, the military, etc. etc. etc. In other words, across all sectors of the government. Some sectors would be cut more than others. Yes, we would be putting people out of work and increasing the unemployment rate.
Secondly, raise taxes. Not just on the rich (close the loopholes where Buffet pays 15% for example), but on all people, rich and poor. We are all citizens of the U.S. and we all have a civic duty to help out.
In a word: sacrifice. We must sacrifice to get ourselves out the quagmire that you >>Cod Peace
Funniest Perot line (and there were many): “I’m all ears.”
Yes, I voted for Perot and helped get Clinton in the white house. The man might be deranged but the info porn her sells is right on the button. The message is right but the messenger is damaged goods. Too bad this stuff isn’t absorbed better but the populace is locked in a REM state awaiting “change”.
After being asked if I prefer a 3rd Bush Term or a 2nd Carter term, I think the choice is better described this way: Do I prefer to be shot or stabbed to death?
Keep up the good work DHB.
strange thing…. somewhat is defending military spending…???
The US is in deep @#$%, and we all know it. We have to do some scary things, like cut defense spending, cut spending on the police state, and cut spending on social services. (and in that order) But why do we have to cut military spending drastically, because it is 50% of expenditures. Think about it…. step back from your gut reaction, and think about the biggest bang for the buck type thinking. Cutting social services spending is window dressing, it is used to placate the “conservatives”. All those welfare moms…. vs. Billion dollar airplanes, Trillion dollar battle groups, and @#$% whatever…. Sure, I get the projection of force theory but come on really…. but alas this is the losing argument isn’t it. A rational argument would be that Defense expenditures couldn’t exceed 25% of the total trillion dollar budget… this would allow them to outspend the rest of the world by a factor of 2 to 3 times, but this isn’t good enough????
Heck, one argument I could use… is that every dollar we cut spending on defense, 25 cents should be given to the small business administration to encourage entreprenuers…. this would fight the unemployment argument and create a bigger tax base….
My solution is much more simple
If the budget does not get balanced, politicians personal assets will be used to fund the difference.
That would get some things rolling, right now!
Anyone else amused that the people calling for cuts to the military budget either haven’t read the Perot charts site, or completely missed the point? I, for one, and both amused and saddened that they represent a good number of the voters, which is why it’s unlikely America can fix the problem before we crash and burn.
The cliff-notes version, for the slow liberals:
Entitlement programs are becoming a larger and larger portion of the total government spending, and they dwarf any/all discretionary spending (such as military spending). Eventually, they will be 100% of the federal budget, at which point the system collapses. On the upside, if we can reduce them, we can spend the same amount on the military and have money left over to pay for liberal pork-barrel projects. Unfortunately, by insisting on being intentionally ignorant of the problem, and refusing the confront it while blaming things like military spending for the deficit mess, we doom ourselves to eventual collapse.
Unfortunately, I probably lost the anti-military crowd somewhere near “Anyone”…
Nick… totally get that… but why is military spending the holy grail…… the so called fiscally “conservative” crowd is all about cutting social security and medicare benefits, but not military spending, can’t do that… hmmmm…. notice in my post I am for cutting across the board…. Funny, how medicare and SS is considered “entitlement”… Why do I pay SS tax and medicare tax again? Is it because the corporate entitlement program known as military spending feels entitled to the peoples entitlement program.
So if “conservative” is robbing one entitlement program to pay for another entitlement program then call me “liberal”. The reality of the situation is we are going to have to cut all “entitlement” programs aren’t we… Sure, I didn’t go to Harvard like dubya, but I look at my pay stub…
Back in the day, Perot earned 19% of the votes, so USA had a prez that 60% voted against for 8 yrs instead. Another point i must drive-home, since we have had some misguided comments above: Most of that “military spending” is personell = people’s salaries.
I do not agree with the arbitrary choices set out:
A. Higher Taxes
B. Less Spending
C. Combination of both
To that you need to add, “Debt reputdiated”. The government does a reset.
There is simply too much debt to ever pay back. It needs to go away
completely to have the credit available for purchases and industrial
capital.
After that of course, spending cuts. Squeezing taxes out of turnip will not be easy.
The only presidential candidate I ever really wanted in office was Ross Perot. That would have turned this ship around like the business it is. The guy is not afraid to crunch the numbers and then show them to everybody.
I was mad when he dropped out.
The following is all true:
“The economic crisis facing America today is far greater than anything since the Great Depression,†said Perot. “Our federal government continues to spend us deeper into debt. The American people must get directly involved and demand an end to deficit spending. This website will provide information for citizens to do just that.â€
It is also irrelevant — regarding what is actually going to occur.
While previous comments argue back and forth about what areas of the federal budget should be cut, there is no chance it is actually going to be cut. Instead, what will be seen is a massive expansion of the budget, combined with tax cuts, that will increase deficit spending to levels never seen before. This will fund a colossal new Resolution Trust Corporation, modelled on the original of 1989 but vastly larger, that will attempt to stave off complete financial collapse due to the housing bubble.
This will not be a panic reaction, but rather part of a plan that the government and federal reserve have already been following for some years now in an attempt to avoid the kind of deflation which they believe exacerbated the Great Depression. An interesting discussion here:
http://thoughtsfromthetrenches.blogspot.com/2008/04/future-actions-of-federal-reserve-and.html
And a relevant paper (pdf) from the NY Fed, and later IMF website, here:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp0364.pdf
Our military budget is not even 4% of GDP. Back in the 1950’s it was over 10%.
It was over 6% of GDP in the 1980’s. Fact is we have cut military spending even if it is perhaps the most effective government spending program we have. What does the rest of the world really want to buy from us. Hint, it isn’t our cars. They covet our armaments and they covet our armaments because they have the most
advanced technology. So, cutting military spending is going to jeopardize our most successful industries and companies. At the end of the day you can only keep the wealth you can defend. Ask the Emir of Kuwait.
“Our military budget is not even 4% of GDP. Back in the 1950’s it was over 10%. It was over 6% of GDP in the 1980’s.”
One often sees a similar quote, so perhaps a couple of clarifying points are in order:
1. It assumes GDP is a valid measure of economic “strength”. However, in the 1970s the manufacturing sector was 25 percent of GDP and financial services 12 percent, but by 2003-06, this was reversed: manufacturing was only 12 percent, and financial services 21 percent — 21 percent filled with profits from toxic mortagages, CDOs, SIVs, etc., etc., etc. GDP only measures “economic activity”, not whether anything useful is actually being done. So as far military spending goes, “4%” versus “6%” or “10%” may not be saying anything relevant. Current military spending as a percent of the actual productive economy may actually be larger now than in the 1980’s. Note that a large part of military spending is for manufactured equipment, and manufacturing has decreased from 25% to 12% of the economy.
2. The statement that military spending was 10% of GDP in the 1950’s seems to assume that this was not harmful to the economy. However, it is obvious that every dollar spent on the military is a dollar not spent on otherwise productive investment. Other nations have indeed made such investments, and it is no coincidence that the economies of Germany, Japan, and even China began to catch up to the U.S. in the succeeding period. The GDP of the European Union now exceeds that of the U.S. by a significant margin. And if one were able to measure useful productive activity, rather than GDP, who knows what the real position of the U.S. would be…
3. As the nation enters a period of serious economic crisis, with people losing houses and jobs, resources will be strained to the limit. Productive investments in areas such as manufacturing and infrastructure will have to be made if the situation is to be corrected. Current military budget levels will only detract from such investments.
4. The “defense” industry is indeed one of the nation’s most “successful” enterprises. The U.S. military is indeed extremely powerful, at least by conventional measure. So was the military of the U.S.S.R. — just before its economy collapsed.
got charts?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States
2007 GDP of the US is about $13.5 Trillion, expanding to about $14.5 T by mid this year
http://forecasts.org/gdp.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States
US Military budget is $439 B for 2007 ($548 B according to http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy08/hist.html)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:U.S._Federal_Spending_-_FY_2007.pngf
For 2007, military comprised some 20% of the federal budget
So – 20% of the budget, and 3% of US GDP.
You can dig as deep as you like into the data, but let’s ask these questions:
Wouldn’t the National Guard normally be helping out flood victims in the mid-west? Can they, now that for over 5 years so many have been deployed in the Middle East, a conflict which it’s now well established was started on falsified evidence of WMD’s (and other fantasy concoctions of Cheney, Perle, et al)?
The morally bankrupt leadership of this nation is leading us to impending fiscal bankruptcy, whatever numbers you look at. The one party system of Republicrats, essentially, is responsible – and so are you, and so am I.
We bought the hype – that we needed to consume rather than produce; that material goods rather than educational, social, and infrastructure improvements are the true totems of prosperity; that our leaders can be trusted.
The pendulum is inexorably swinging. Remember your high school physics? It reaches maximum velocity as it swings through the bottom of the arc. If, as the good Doctor has theorized, we’re still on the way down – watch out – the sharp blade is still gathering speed.
Over 50% of the military budget is personel costs. Salaries, housing, food etc. If there were ‘lies’ told about Iraq’s WMD program they were invented before Bush ever took office. Clinton said so. Maybe Bush was naive in believing Clinton, I mean the man was a convicted liar, but Clinton had no personal interest in misrepresenting Iraq’s WMD capability. The British, the French, even Saddam’s
own generals believed the same. In some ways its like the man with his hand in his pocket feigning he has a gun. You tend to assume he does even if he doesn’t
show it. Saddam wanted the world to believe he had such weapons and the world did. It may even be that the bio weapons were spirited out of the country before the invasion. We never have discovered the origins of that weaponized anthrax that was in the mails after 9/11. We KNOW Saddam produced such material and that his government could not account for it. One small truck or airplane could have carried the entire stockpile known to have been produced to just about anywhere.Oh and the Soviet economy did collapse as do all economies that ignore free markets but their armanents industry survived and produced and still produces about the only manufactured goods the Russians can export to the world or that portion of it unable to buy US armaments so don’t be too quick to call military manufacturiing wasteful. The global market in weaponry is huge and lucrative.
Perot should endorse Obama if he wants change.
My favorite Perot moment was when he brought charts to a radio debate.
First, I have trouble believing these charts. My parents paid NOTHING AT ALL in taxes until they were in their 50’s. I’ve been paying more and more each year(percent wise), yet my living standard hasn’t increased. I look around to the people I know, and everyone are directly working for the government or a large portion of their income is from the government. I don’t belief that our GDP is increasing to compensate for this either. It seems to me that the government is discouraging people from starting businesses. More people everyday are being laid off, and no one has a job. What are we producing any more?
Second, if you belief Perot’s charts or not, our biggest threat to our economy is the medical industry, which coincidents with my long held beliefs. From my point of view, we need to get some control on that. The medical industry is full with fraud, incompetence, greed and stupidity. In 99% instances, we are definitely not getting our money out from this waste. Pharma floods the tube with ads telling us that we are sick, buy this miracle drug (and get what? – you are paying for those advertisements). One and a half MILLION people are harmed by hospitals every year. When doctors go on strike or if hospitals close, death rates go down. Yet we are trying to buy our immortality by flushing more and more to this endless sewer. Pharma and insurance are showing all time profits. Are we getting healthier? Mandating “insurance” will only cause more problems for everyone. Our only hope is to get our freedom back to choose our own health care.
Third, I don’t know if we are running out of oil, or if some big cat just wants a little more power. Some day we will run out of oil. My personally solution is to try to use less power. I couldn’t understand why the government wasn’t trying to get the alternative companies going. But now I’m thinking, because they can’t tax sunshine and wind. I’m trying to make a solar collector. Hope me luck for that!
Fourth, the housing problem is ultimately our own fault to some degree. People were buying bigger houses with less people living in them. The government and banks were encouraging this, why I don’t understand. Obviously, they knew that there would be a financial crunch, but they were still putting people in harm’s way. In addition, I am blaming the government and the media for make the panic worse. And why are they telling the banks to not lend money? Now when people are loosing jobs and loosing houses and can’t afford gas they won’t lend money? What’s that about? Where exactly did the money go anyway?
Thanks, I feel better and I’m done.
where did the money go? it was never there in the first place. it was only computor clicks enabled by a flatulance and air economy for the past 50 years. just remember that what you hold isnt worth what you paid for it or what you owe on it.
Leave a Reply