Comments on: Who Moved my $11 Trillion? How to Lose $11 Trillion in One Year: Housing Market Collapsing, Stocks Crashing, and Comrade Economics. http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Fri, 09 Jan 2009 13:51:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: Hugh Pavletich http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25799 Hugh Pavletich Tue, 14 Oct 2008 08:23:35 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25799 i think if you multiply the total US residential stock by the average price - you will find it is substantially more than the #24 trillion you suggest, At 2.6 people per household with a population of 305 million (refer Census data) that indicates 117.3 million owned and rented occupied units plus around 10 million other / holiday homes 0 with a peak bubble average (not median) price of about $US330,000. In total about $US41 trillion - $US3 trillion other / holiday - net $US38 trillion owned / rented usally occupied. In taking an adjusted perspective (noting Case Shiller convers 20 urban markets only) with the NAR data as well - it would appear that nationally residental values have fallen about 15% since the peak - or about $US6 trillion with about another $US6 trillion to go, It would appear that nearly half the $US6 trillion loss to date has been in California - with its around 13 million usually occupied residences. May I suggest Dr Housing Bubbles you recheck the figures - and work off the base of the number of residential units and the average prices. I look forward to yours and readers further comments............... i think if you multiply the total US residential stock by the average price - you will find it is substantially more than the #24 trillion you suggest,

At 2.6 people per household with a population of 305 million (refer Census data) that indicates 117.3 million owned and rented occupied units plus around 10 million other / holiday homes 0 with a peak bubble average (not median) price of about $US330,000. In total about $US41 trillion - $US3 trillion other / holiday - net $US38 trillion owned / rented usally occupied.

In taking an adjusted perspective (noting Case Shiller convers 20 urban markets only) with the NAR data as well - it would appear that nationally residental values have fallen about 15% since the peak - or about $US6 trillion with about another $US6 trillion to go,

It would appear that nearly half the $US6 trillion loss to date has been in California - with its around 13 million usually occupied residences.

May I suggest Dr Housing Bubbles you recheck the figures - and work off the base of the number of residential units and the average prices.

I look forward to yours and readers further comments……………

]]> By: Perspective http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25740 Perspective Sun, 12 Oct 2008 20:16:50 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25740 Hey Doc, I just have to once again send a big THANK YOU for your great work... keeping up with extremely high quality posts, and this great service that you are providing to the country through your website. You are always spot on. You are providing sanity, reality, and a bit of much appreciated humor on the huge events which are re-defining So Cal, the country, and the world. Thank you, thank you, thank you... and please keep up the great work! Hey Doc, I just have to once again send a big THANK YOU for your great work… keeping up with extremely high quality posts, and this great service that you are providing to the country through your website. You are always spot on. You are providing sanity, reality, and a bit of much appreciated humor on the huge events which are re-defining So Cal, the country, and the world. Thank you, thank you, thank you… and please keep up the great work!

]]> By: islands4 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25724 islands4 Sat, 11 Oct 2008 21:13:53 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25724 You make it simple and clear, great web page. The printing press is going 24/7 and they are going to inflate. History repeats itself, try to buy a 2 buy 4 today at what is cost a few years ago, a house will never go to zero, and you can't depreciate stocks. The bottom is near. Put your ear to the track. You make it simple and clear, great web page. The printing press is going 24/7 and they are going to inflate. History repeats itself, try to buy a 2 buy 4 today at what is cost a few years ago, a house will never go to zero, and you can’t depreciate stocks. The bottom is near. Put your ear to the track.

]]> By: compass rose http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25719 compass rose Sat, 11 Oct 2008 18:53:10 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25719 I agree with Doc that the DJW5000 is one of the better indexes...but, DHB, the front page of the NYT, CNN, USA Today, Barron's, and other sources most people see report only the DJIA...which is 30 "blue chip" stocks. ~ Just as the GDP has been continually redefined to count whatever is going up, the DJIA has as well. Stocks are added and subtracted. ~ For example, on the 18th of last month AIG was removed from the index, "leaving [it] underweighted in financials." You know, since financials were no longer frothing up the DJIA: http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080918/10438174.html?.v=2 ~ At the time Kraft--the holding company for makers of cheap crap-meals-in-a-box, mystery meats, and, ferchrissakes TACO BELL--was going up. So they put Kraft in. ~ The DJIA at present: ~ 3M Alcoa AmEx (F) AT&T (T) BoA (F) Boeing Caterpillar Chevron Citi (F) Coca-Cola (C) Disney (E) DuPont ExxonMobil GE GM HP (T) Home Depot (C) Intel (T) IBM (T) J&J (C/D) JPM Chase (F) Kraft (C) McDonald's (C) Merck (D) MS (T) Pfizer (D) P&G (C) United Technologies Verizon (T) Walmart (C) ~ C=Consumer D=Drugs E=Entertainment F=Financial T=Tech ~ This is what they're all shrieking about! These 30 stocks. Out of some 10,000. ~ Looks to me like there are only 9 actual industrials in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (30 percent). The other 70 percent is mostly speculation, consumption, and the Complexity and Acceleration Industry, rather than hard assets. ~ Talk about phantom wealth--DISNEY? And blue boner pills. And cheap crap from PRC labor camps. And gut-ballast that makes people fat, sick, and stupid. And of the actual industrials what do most of them produce? Global warming, nuclear war, suburbanization, and things that explode. And beer cans. ~ One graph now: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/17/DJIA_historical_graph.svg ~ Look at the amount/mass of purple above the 5,000 line to the right and below it to the left. Does a return to 5,000 or even less still seem unthinkable? THAT'S WHERE IT WAS BEFORE THE TECH BUBBLE! Just 10 years ago. I've been seeing the bottom at 7600-8100. But 5,000 wouldn't surprise me in the least. ~ Isn't this actually pricing these companies at appropriate rates as the unsustainable crapness most of them are--casino tokens that for awhile now have been as overvalued as Real Homes of Genius? ~ rose ~ PS--Bernanke isn't a toad, he's a crony capitalist. Let's PLEASE get in the habit of naming these vermin for what they are--the ugliest species on earth. I can't believe that people still consider sex acts or organs, or animals, to be the worst we can call each other. I mean, Hank Paulson makes Ebola virus look merciful. Bernanke is an economist, and that's the second worst thing you can call anyone. After investment banker. ~ There's an old Savo-Karjalan saying, "If shit was worth anything, bankers would steal our assholes." I agree with Doc that the DJW5000 is one of the better indexes…but, DHB, the front page of the NYT, CNN, USA Today, Barron’s, and other sources most people see report only the DJIA…which is 30 “blue chip” stocks.
~
Just as the GDP has been continually redefined to count whatever is going up, the DJIA has as well. Stocks are added and subtracted.
~
For example, on the 18th of last month AIG was removed from the index, “leaving [it] underweighted in financials.” You know, since financials were no longer frothing up the DJIA:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080918/10438174.html?.v=2
~
At the time Kraft–the holding company for makers of cheap crap-meals-in-a-box, mystery meats, and, ferchrissakes TACO BELL–was going up. So they put Kraft in.
~
The DJIA at present:
~
3M
Alcoa
AmEx (F)
AT&T (T)
BoA (F)
Boeing
Caterpillar
Chevron
Citi (F)
Coca-Cola (C)
Disney (E)
DuPont
ExxonMobil
GE
GM
HP (T)
Home Depot (C)
Intel (T)
IBM (T)
J&J (C/D)
JPM Chase (F)
Kraft (C)
McDonald’s (C)
Merck (D)
MS (T)
Pfizer (D)
P&G (C)
United Technologies
Verizon (T)
Walmart (C)
~
C=Consumer D=Drugs E=Entertainment F=Financial T=Tech
~
This is what they’re all shrieking about! These 30 stocks. Out of some 10,000.
~
Looks to me like there are only 9 actual industrials in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (30 percent). The other 70 percent is mostly speculation, consumption, and the Complexity and Acceleration Industry, rather than hard assets.
~
Talk about phantom wealth–DISNEY? And blue boner pills. And cheap crap from PRC labor camps. And gut-ballast that makes people fat, sick, and stupid. And of the actual industrials what do most of them produce? Global warming, nuclear war, suburbanization, and things that explode. And beer cans.
~
One graph now:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/17/DJIA_historical_graph.svg
~
Look at the amount/mass of purple above the 5,000 line to the right and below it to the left. Does a return to 5,000 or even less still seem unthinkable? THAT’S WHERE IT WAS BEFORE THE TECH BUBBLE! Just 10 years ago. I’ve been seeing the bottom at 7600-8100. But 5,000 wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
~
Isn’t this actually pricing these companies at appropriate rates as the unsustainable crapness most of them are–casino tokens that for awhile now have been as overvalued as Real Homes of Genius?
~
rose
~
PS–Bernanke isn’t a toad, he’s a crony capitalist. Let’s PLEASE get in the habit of naming these vermin for what they are–the ugliest species on earth. I can’t believe that people still consider sex acts or organs, or animals, to be the worst we can call each other. I mean, Hank Paulson makes Ebola virus look merciful. Bernanke is an economist, and that’s the second worst thing you can call anyone. After investment banker.
~
There’s an old Savo-Karjalan saying, “If shit was worth anything, bankers would steal our assholes.”

]]> By: Alan in RTP http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25715 Alan in RTP Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:35:56 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/who-moved-my-11-trillion-how-to-lose-11-trillion-in-one-year-housing-market-collapsing-stocks-crashing-and-comrade-economics/#comment-25715 Dollar strengthening? That's only because the other currencies are falling faster and the dogma is that the dollar is a safe haven. Rather than panic and use all our resources to fight the wrong fight, we indeed need to let the market sort this out to some extent. If we get through this, we need to have some concept of developing a sustainable economic system. Letting the insane run the asylum is never a good plan. Regulations evolve just to prevent this exact thing from happening. In capitalism, the one who breaks the rules wins unless there are some repercussions. The tinkle-down theory has always failed. The world is complex, but the important principles don't change. It's not different this time--just we are far more ill-prepared to deal with this depression, but we will find a way. Dollar strengthening? That’s only because the other currencies are falling faster and the dogma is that the dollar is a safe haven. Rather than panic and use all our resources to fight the wrong fight, we indeed need to let the market sort this out to some extent. If we get through this, we need to have some concept of developing a sustainable economic system. Letting the insane run the asylum is never a good plan. Regulations evolve just to prevent this exact thing from happening. In capitalism, the one who breaks the rules wins unless there are some repercussions. The tinkle-down theory has always failed. The world is complex, but the important principles don’t change. It’s not different this time–just we are far more ill-prepared to deal with this depression, but we will find a way.

]]>