Comments on: The Sham of our Current Unemployment Rate Numbers: Lessons from the Great Depression: Part X. Data Mining. http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Sat, 22 Nov 2008 07:10:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: Dee http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-26730 Dee Tue, 11 Nov 2008 03:32:05 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-26730 I have to agree with AnnScott. I've been having this same discussion for about three weeks now. During the Great Depression, we didn't have Social Security, nor did we have Welfare. I don't know if those receiving welfare are included in these numbers, but if not....they should be. There are too many programs out there that allow the numbers to be distorted. We've been in a recession for two years and are quickly heading for a depression. The volume of people seeking employment is overwhelming. I've been doing some recruitment consulting since I got laid off four months ago and the amount of people apply for these positions is huge. And yes, Jes....I did garden this year. I canned over 100 quarts of green beans, 40 pints of pickles, 20 quarts of spagetti sauce, 27 quarts of tomatoes and froze both squash and peas. (My corn bombed.) This was my job after I got laid off. My husband is also going deer hunting for the first time in years. And, I planted fruit trees this year (we just moved to a new state) it will take a couple of years to produce, but it will take more to recover from this mess. I also got rid of my credit cards 15 years ago when I went through divorce. I bought two homes with other credit history (orthodontia, utilities)....We aren't rich and my kids are having to adjust...but their resilient. I just hope my husband keeps his job.....:) I have to agree with AnnScott. I’ve been having this same discussion for about three weeks now. During the Great Depression, we didn’t have Social Security, nor did we have Welfare. I don’t know if those receiving welfare are included in these numbers, but if not….they should be. There are too many programs out there that allow the numbers to be distorted. We’ve been in a recession for two years and are quickly heading for a depression. The volume of people seeking employment is overwhelming. I’ve been doing some recruitment consulting since I got laid off four months ago and the amount of people apply for these positions is huge.

And yes, Jes….I did garden this year. I canned over 100 quarts of green beans, 40 pints of pickles, 20 quarts of spagetti sauce, 27 quarts of tomatoes and froze both squash and peas. (My corn bombed.) This was my job after I got laid off. My husband is also going deer hunting for the first time in years. And, I planted fruit trees this year (we just moved to a new state) it will take a couple of years to produce, but it will take more to recover from this mess.

I also got rid of my credit cards 15 years ago when I went through divorce. I bought two homes with other credit history (orthodontia, utilities)….We aren’t rich and my kids are having to adjust…but their resilient.

I just hope my husband keeps his job…..:)

]]> By: Paul http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-19725 Paul Wed, 09 Jul 2008 23:54:37 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-19725 So right! Debt will rear its ugly head at the worst possible moment. If you do not relinquish its hold you will lose EVERYTHING! to quote Cinderella man, "It all stopped being mine." thats how it works. When you are in debt you don't own anything, you are then living in somebody else's house. People need to live within THEIR means! Not their neighbors who just got the cool new car. People have this strange notion that to be equal to someone you have the same or better stuff. Its not true. By the way this is a 14 year old kid talking to you about "big people stuff", trust me your kids don't want you to hide stuff from them. It makes them wonder whether you are always honest with them. They will love you no matter how hard times are, even if it dosent fell that way. They know you love them, so just tell them. They are smarter than you think. I'll go finish my summer assignment now. So right! Debt will rear its ugly head at the worst possible moment. If you do not relinquish its hold you will lose EVERYTHING! to quote Cinderella man, “It all stopped being mine.” thats how it works. When you are in debt you don’t own anything, you are then living in somebody else’s house. People need to live within THEIR means! Not their neighbors who just got the cool new car. People have this strange notion that to be equal to someone you have the same or better stuff. Its not true. By the way this is a 14 year old kid talking to you about “big people stuff”, trust me your kids don’t want you to hide stuff from them. It makes them wonder whether you are always honest with them. They will love you no matter how hard times are, even if it dosent fell that way. They know you love them, so just tell them. They are smarter than you think. I’ll go finish my summer assignment now.

]]> By: Concerned Guy http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-18811 Concerned Guy Mon, 23 Jun 2008 06:53:49 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-18811 1. People that graduate from high school or college, etc that never had a job are not counted in unemployment stats, and they cannot get unemployment payment since they did not work. How many of these are out there? What are their prospects for work? 2. We are a highly urbanized and technologically dependent society. Yet we have exported much of our manufacturing capacity, unlike the great depression. When the war (that was clearly materializing but ignored by many) hit, at least we had the engineers, machinists,and machine tools to get us moving out of depression and into war materiel production by 1940. We lack much of that now. 3. America was still about 40% rural/small farm/small town in the 1930's. While many of these people struggled or had to give up farming, many were able to eke it out. We are now a commercial agribusiness country, making stuff in huge quantity for processing into pre-prepared food, non foods, or for mass export. Good luck to us. 1. People that graduate from high school or college, etc that never had a job are not counted in unemployment stats, and they cannot get unemployment payment since they did not work. How many of these are out there? What are their prospects for work?

2. We are a highly urbanized and technologically dependent society. Yet we have exported much of our manufacturing capacity, unlike the great depression. When the war (that was clearly materializing but ignored by many) hit, at least we had the engineers, machinists,and machine tools to get us moving out of depression and into war materiel production by 1940. We lack much of that now.

3. America was still about 40% rural/small farm/small town in the 1930’s. While many of these people struggled or had to give up farming, many were able to eke it out. We are now a commercial agribusiness country, making stuff in huge quantity for processing into pre-prepared food, non foods, or for mass export. Good luck to us.

]]> By: Rob http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-18135 Rob Thu, 12 Jun 2008 20:37:53 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-18135 I asked an acquaintance who works at BLS about the unemployment numbers, and here's what he said: "When BLS measures unemployment, they do it according to generally recognized international concepts of what unemployment is. It is not a measure of economic hardship, which is what the blogger seems to want it to be. People who want better paying jobs or people who want full-time jobs when they only have part-time jobs may not be happy with their situation and it may cause them economic hardship, but you can't say that they are unemployed. The unemployment rate is just one measure of economic hard times, but, generally speaking, when it is on the rise, things are getting better and when it is falling, things are getting worse. See the Frequently Asked Questions page for more about the unemployment rate: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_faq.htm." I asked an acquaintance who works at BLS about the unemployment numbers, and here’s what he said:
“When BLS measures unemployment, they do it according to generally recognized international concepts of what unemployment is. It is not a measure of economic hardship, which is what the blogger seems to want it to be. People who want better paying jobs or people who want full-time jobs when they only have part-time jobs may not be happy with their situation and it may cause them economic hardship, but you can’t say that they are unemployed. The unemployment rate is just one measure of economic hard times, but, generally speaking, when it is on the rise, things are getting better and when it is falling, things are getting worse. See the Frequently Asked Questions page for more about the unemployment rate: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_faq.htm.“

]]> By: cas127 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-16881 cas127 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 14:02:12 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-sham-of-our-current-unemployment-rate-numbers-lessons-from-the-great-depression-part-x-data-mining/#comment-16881 To quote "Die Hard" - "Welcome to the party, pal!" The true employment picture has been *seriously* distorted since at least the end of the tech bubble in 2000/2001/2002. Everyone should simply look at the "employment-to-population" ratios put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) every month. You will find out that this ratio remains markedly lower for all sub-55 age cohorts - lower than even 7 or 8 *years* ago (how long the "employment recession" has really been going on). Bottom line, the "employed to population" ratio is simply *much* harder to manipulate than the joke that is the "unemployment rate" - and therefore it is a much better metric for the true state of the labor markets. Unlike the UE, the E2P rate takes into account 1) so-called "discouraged workers" who have allegedly given up looking for work, 2) new labor market entrants (HS and college grads), and 3) the long-term unemployed. All 3 groups are intentionally ignored by the standard defintion of the UE. Result - *millions* fewer under-55 workers are currently employed than would have been employed now if employment rates were anything like they were 10 or 15 years ago. To quote “Die Hard” - “Welcome to the party, pal!”

The true employment picture has been *seriously* distorted since at least the end of the tech bubble in 2000/2001/2002.

Everyone should simply look at the “employment-to-population” ratios put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) every month.

You will find out that this ratio remains markedly lower for all sub-55 age cohorts - lower than even 7 or 8 *years* ago (how long the “employment recession” has really been going on).

Bottom line, the “employed to population” ratio is simply *much* harder to manipulate than the joke that is the “unemployment rate” - and therefore it is a much better metric for the true state of the labor markets.

Unlike the UE, the E2P rate takes into account 1) so-called “discouraged workers” who have allegedly given up looking for work, 2) new labor market entrants (HS and college grads), and 3) the long-term unemployed.

All 3 groups are intentionally ignored by the standard defintion of the UE.

Result - *millions* fewer under-55 workers are currently employed than would have been employed now if employment rates were anything like they were 10 or 15 years ago.

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