Comments on: The Elusive California Housing Bottom: The Relationship between Unemployment and Housing Prices. Market Conditions point to a 2013 Market Bottom. http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-elusive-california-housing-bottom-the-relationship-between-unemployment-and-housing-prices-market-conditions-point-to-a-2013-market-bottom/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Sat, 31 Jul 2010 22:55:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Cameron L http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-elusive-california-housing-bottom-the-relationship-between-unemployment-and-housing-prices-market-conditions-point-to-a-2013-market-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-38001 Cameron L Fri, 24 Jul 2009 03:47:32 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2041#comment-38001 Mey, Harsh, and yet, amusing. Mey,
Harsh, and yet, amusing.

]]> By: Obomanation http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-elusive-california-housing-bottom-the-relationship-between-unemployment-and-housing-prices-market-conditions-point-to-a-2013-market-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-37988 Obomanation Thu, 23 Jul 2009 01:03:10 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2041#comment-37988 S&P at 147. I just read an article about the S&P P/E going to 1900 so perhaps 2000. Frightening since many companies lie about their earnings, so I've heard... MBAgirl...you sure know how to get a conversation going. Good luck...it's a jungle out there. Be especially careful of the Alt Apes and the Jumbo-loan Elephant in the room. Also the Goldman Asp and BOA constrictor. Some really bloodthirsty predators out there. S&P at 147. I just read an article about the S&P P/E going to 1900 so perhaps 2000. Frightening since many companies lie about their earnings, so I’ve heard…

MBAgirl…you sure know how to get a conversation going. Good luck…it’s a jungle out there. Be especially careful of the Alt Apes and the Jumbo-loan Elephant in the room. Also the Goldman Asp and BOA constrictor. Some really bloodthirsty predators out there.

]]> By: whitehall http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-elusive-california-housing-bottom-the-relationship-between-unemployment-and-housing-prices-market-conditions-point-to-a-2013-market-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-37961 whitehall Wed, 22 Jul 2009 00:51:10 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2041#comment-37961 On further reflection, buying a rental property is something like buying a long bond. Price of the asset varies (like abond) but the actual cash flow vary, unlike a bond. Still rent cash flow is less variable and is somewhat indexed to inflation. Williams948, Just reporting the facts before my eyes. Use whatever PC terms you want but China has large dollar inventories and wants them converted to other assets. As to the foreclosures, the subprime loan mess had a political angle to push mortgages to specific ethnicities as political vote buying. Again, just reporting the facts before my eyes. Of course, that seldom has little import to the politically correct. Norman, The classic Fed mandate has been to take away the punch bowl just when the party got started. I'm very doubtful that they can bring back all that money gracefully. Besides, there is not enough money to lend on the planet to cover the upcoming deficits from the Obama Administration. The Fed will have to monatize the deficit. That also fits the foreign policy of suckering China. The US has always had the option of reducing the value of China's dollar reserves by inflating and reducing the real value of those reserves. On further reflection, buying a rental property is something like buying a long bond. Price of the asset varies (like abond) but the actual cash flow vary, unlike a bond. Still rent cash flow is less variable and is somewhat indexed to inflation.

Williams948,

Just reporting the facts before my eyes. Use whatever PC terms you want but China has large dollar inventories and wants them converted to other assets. As to the foreclosures, the subprime loan mess had a political angle to push mortgages to specific ethnicities as political vote buying. Again, just reporting the facts before my eyes. Of course, that seldom has little import to the politically correct.

Norman,

The classic Fed mandate has been to take away the punch bowl just when the party got started. I’m very doubtful that they can bring back all that money gracefully. Besides, there is not enough money to lend on the planet to cover the upcoming deficits from the Obama Administration. The Fed will have to monatize the deficit. That also fits the foreign policy of suckering China. The US has always had the option of reducing the value of China’s dollar reserves by inflating and reducing the real value of those reserves.

]]> By: Norman http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-elusive-california-housing-bottom-the-relationship-between-unemployment-and-housing-prices-market-conditions-point-to-a-2013-market-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-37955 Norman Tue, 21 Jul 2009 21:38:56 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2041#comment-37955 Whitehall, I also live in Bay Area. I also hear the same story you are telling from different resource. Folks are crazy to find a safe place for their piles and piles of cash to prevent the lost from inflation. Stock market? No. Bank? No. Real estate, yes. If huge inflation is right on the corner, just like Alta-A foreclosure wave, buying real estate could be good thing to do. The question is whether Fed can pull all the excess liquidity from market without too much side effect so to minimize the inflation. Without inflation danger down the road, I believe the bottom time (nominally, not adjusted by inflation) given by Dr.HB is right, but with double amount of money in the market, I don't know. Whitehall, I also live in Bay Area. I also hear the same story you are telling from different resource. Folks are crazy to find a safe place for their piles and piles of cash to prevent the lost from inflation. Stock market? No. Bank? No. Real estate, yes. If huge inflation is right on the corner, just like Alta-A foreclosure wave, buying real estate could be good thing to do. The question is whether Fed can pull all the excess liquidity from market without too much side effect so to minimize the inflation.

Without inflation danger down the road, I believe the bottom time (nominally, not adjusted by inflation) given by Dr.HB is right, but with double amount of money in the market, I don’t know.

]]> By: Doug N http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-elusive-california-housing-bottom-the-relationship-between-unemployment-and-housing-prices-market-conditions-point-to-a-2013-market-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-37954 Doug N Tue, 21 Jul 2009 18:40:55 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2041#comment-37954 <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover-brokers19-2009jul19,0,2255936.story" rel="nofollow">Commercial brokers are swimming in empty space</a> In a distressed market, the stakes are higher and deals are more elusive. --- <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-commre19-2009jul19,0,2024624.story" rel="nofollow">Commercial real estate slumps hard in the Southland</a> Offices and warehouses empty out, even as rents decrease, in L.A., Riverside, Orange and San Bernardino counties. A turnaround might be years away. --- From the Calpers-Teachers Link: The fund suffered severe losses across its portfolio, which was hard hit by a <strong>43% decline in its real estate values</strong>, a 28.2% drop in stocks and a 27.6% loss in private equity holdings. Commercial brokers are swimming in empty space
In a distressed market, the stakes are higher and deals are more elusive.
—

Commercial real estate slumps hard in the Southland
Offices and warehouses empty out, even as rents decrease, in L.A., Riverside, Orange and San Bernardino counties. A turnaround might be years away.
—

From the Calpers-Teachers Link:

The fund suffered severe losses across its portfolio, which was hard hit by a 43% decline in its real estate values, a 28.2% drop in stocks and a 27.6% loss in private equity holdings.

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