Comments on: Shadow Housing Inventory: The Deception of the Foreclosure Numbers and the real REO Picture. A Case Study of Southern California Real Estate. How 40,000 Homes are Hidden From Public View by Banks. http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-housing-inventory-the-deception-of-the-foreclosure-numbers-and-the-real-reo-picture-a-case-study-of-southern-california-real-estate-how-40000-homes-are-hidden-from-public-view-by-banks/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Thu, 11 Mar 2010 18:48:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: DaveInLV http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-housing-inventory-the-deception-of-the-foreclosure-numbers-and-the-real-reo-picture-a-case-study-of-southern-california-real-estate-how-40000-homes-are-hidden-from-public-view-by-banks/comment-page-2/#comment-41215 DaveInLV Fri, 23 Oct 2009 04:30:30 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2110#comment-41215 On the other hand the September report of ForeclosureRadar says there is no shadow inventory in California. (https://s3.amazonaws.com/CA_Foreclosure_Report/September+2009+CA+Foreclosure+Report.pdf). Comments anyone? On the other hand the September report of ForeclosureRadar says there is no shadow inventory in California. (https://s3.amazonaws.com/CA_Foreclosure_Report/September+2009+CA+Foreclosure+Report.pdf).

Comments anyone?

]]> By: Mich http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-housing-inventory-the-deception-of-the-foreclosure-numbers-and-the-real-reo-picture-a-case-study-of-southern-california-real-estate-how-40000-homes-are-hidden-from-public-view-by-banks/comment-page-2/#comment-40467 Mich Wed, 30 Sep 2009 13:33:43 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2110#comment-40467 I love real estate optimists. It could be the worst economic melt and they would swear by Judas. That they can still do business. I have known guys like that in the past. They faired really well. Of course that was in the boom days. Now some of them are on welfare. Most of those guys the short term. Made more money than any time in my life. Shot their wad because they made some big money fast and now have to collect food stamps. Have to learn the hard way. The guys with staying power. They don't blow all of their money on marketing. The fast buck guys try to get you to spend all of your money on marketing and take all of your risk for you. Fast money is the big lure. I love real estate optimists. It could be the worst economic melt and they would swear by Judas. That they can still do business. I have known guys like that in the past. They faired really well. Of course that was in the boom days. Now some of them are on welfare. Most of those guys the short term. Made more money than any time in my life. Shot their wad because they made some big money fast and now have to collect food stamps. Have to learn the hard way.

The guys with staying power. They don’t blow all of their money on marketing. The fast buck guys try to get you to spend all of your money on marketing and take all of your risk for you.

Fast money is the big lure.

]]> By: Seer http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-housing-inventory-the-deception-of-the-foreclosure-numbers-and-the-real-reo-picture-a-case-study-of-southern-california-real-estate-how-40000-homes-are-hidden-from-public-view-by-banks/comment-page-2/#comment-39904 Seer Fri, 11 Sep 2009 10:12:45 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2110#comment-39904 Bingo jimbo! I read through all these comments and was waiting for someone to point out the OBVIOUS, that the old paradigm is dead! Had to wait until I hit your post, the very last one! Geez, I should know better, that if I want to find out how things end I should hit the last chapter first! This is the trend in the BIG cycle, the ONE cycle that is (growth) capitalism. And that trend is DOWN. Sure, we'll see some upticks here and there, but the path is down, down until the entire system ruptures (or just decays, like some abandoned property). I recall over 2 1/2 years ago telling my brother (who dabbles in real estate) that real estate prices were going to drop. No way he said. I just saw a house in my neighborhood sell for $265k; previous sale price? $390k! (and this is in one of the more stable markets in the country!) About 1/2 year ago I stated that property taxes were going to go down. Of course, this really has never happened, so folks felt pretty smug in refuting such a claim. Well, I've now seen it! How could property taxes go down? My argument was that, in addition to the fact that people's wages were dropping and unemployment was rising, more and more properties were falling back into the hands of the banks. Consider the banks as having a bit of sway; already struggling, banks are going to put pressure on their pals in government (sound familiar?). And what happens when property taxes go down? MORE unemployment! Followed by yet more foreclosures and on and on downward we go. People can speculate all they want about how things would work in a functioning system, but this system is broken and cannot be repaired- for why would we want to do that when it was horribly defective to begin with (people now know it!). Bingo jimbo! I read through all these comments and was waiting for someone to point out the OBVIOUS, that the old paradigm is dead! Had to wait until I hit your post, the very last one! Geez, I should know better, that if I want to find out how things end I should hit the last chapter first!

This is the trend in the BIG cycle, the ONE cycle that is (growth) capitalism. And that trend is DOWN. Sure, we’ll see some upticks here and there, but the path is down, down until the entire system ruptures (or just decays, like some abandoned property).

I recall over 2 1/2 years ago telling my brother (who dabbles in real estate) that real estate prices were going to drop. No way he said. I just saw a house in my neighborhood sell for $265k; previous sale price? $390k! (and this is in one of the more stable markets in the country!) About 1/2 year ago I stated that property taxes were going to go down. Of course, this really has never happened, so folks felt pretty smug in refuting such a claim. Well, I’ve now seen it!

How could property taxes go down? My argument was that, in addition to the fact that people’s wages were dropping and unemployment was rising, more and more properties were falling back into the hands of the banks. Consider the banks as having a bit of sway; already struggling, banks are going to put pressure on their pals in government (sound familiar?).

And what happens when property taxes go down? MORE unemployment! Followed by yet more foreclosures and on and on downward we go.

People can speculate all they want about how things would work in a functioning system, but this system is broken and cannot be repaired- for why would we want to do that when it was horribly defective to begin with (people now know it!).

]]> By: jimbo http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-housing-inventory-the-deception-of-the-foreclosure-numbers-and-the-real-reo-picture-a-case-study-of-southern-california-real-estate-how-40000-homes-are-hidden-from-public-view-by-banks/comment-page-1/#comment-39897 jimbo Fri, 11 Sep 2009 02:32:48 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2110#comment-39897 "As things improve, and they will… I wouldn’t be looking for the next big “pop.” Not only am I looking for the next big pop, I am counting on it. Its coming. Bubbles don’t burst twice. 2 bubbles bust, each bubble once. The overflated home bubble and the debt bubble. What about all the debt out there, such as federal unfunded obligations($65 trillion or so), you know, the boomers retiring and taping into medicare and social security. Their 401ks are shot, they will be dumping their homes on the market soon. Banks can't hide those. Homes do need to be maintained, as a landlord, I know. Personal bankruptcies too. How long do you think it will take to pay this off, assuming it will be paid. Bryan, you are assuming the growth paradigm. This paradigm is dead as we have run up against the limits of nature. Food production( in part due to soil depletion), oil production, coming shortage of many minerals, potable water, etc. “As things improve, and they will… I wouldn’t be looking for the next big “pop.” Not only am I looking for the next big pop, I am counting on it. Its coming.

Bubbles don’t burst twice. 2 bubbles bust, each bubble once. The overflated home bubble and the debt bubble. What about all the debt out there, such as federal unfunded obligations($65 trillion or so), you know, the boomers retiring and taping into medicare and social security. Their 401ks are shot, they will be dumping their homes on the market soon. Banks can’t hide those. Homes do need to be maintained, as a landlord, I know. Personal bankruptcies too. How long do you think it will take to pay this off, assuming it will be paid. Bryan, you are assuming the growth paradigm. This paradigm is dead as we have run up against the limits of nature. Food production( in part due to soil depletion), oil production, coming shortage of many minerals, potable water, etc.

]]> By: Renter http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-housing-inventory-the-deception-of-the-foreclosure-numbers-and-the-real-reo-picture-a-case-study-of-southern-california-real-estate-how-40000-homes-are-hidden-from-public-view-by-banks/comment-page-1/#comment-38732 Renter Tue, 18 Aug 2009 22:38:30 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=2110#comment-38732 @ Cengiz: I think the problem (and the main difference) in your DeBeers example is that properties, particularly houses, are not stable entities like precious stones. A house that sits vacant and abandoned for years is going to deteriorate and fall apart. Already, many properties that have been walked away from are showing tremendous signs of decay. The yards have died or gone to seed, often to the detriment of neighboring yards, and the houses themselves fall into disrepair. The values of these houses will continue to fall while they sit idle, and it will do so at an increasing rate over time. The banks cannot sit on a house the way DeBeers can stones. They have to move these properties (sooner than later) or suffer even greater losses or worse, orders from municipalities to maintain the houses or suffer fines. Out in Victorville, CA, there were a bunch of (way overbuilt for the area) houses that were model homes; they weren't built to code. The banks took over when the builder defaulted and were ordered to bring them up to code or face fines by the city; instead they tore the homes down. ...this is what the real future of this shadow inventory holds. Sale in the near future, or demolition! @ Cengiz:
I think the problem (and the main difference) in your DeBeers example is that properties, particularly houses, are not stable entities like precious stones. A house that sits vacant and abandoned for years is going to deteriorate and fall apart.
Already, many properties that have been walked away from are showing tremendous signs of decay. The yards have died or gone to seed, often to the detriment of neighboring yards, and the houses themselves fall into disrepair. The values of these houses will continue to fall while they sit idle, and it will do so at an increasing rate over time. The banks cannot sit on a house the way DeBeers can stones. They have to move these properties (sooner than later) or suffer even greater losses or worse, orders from municipalities to maintain the houses or suffer fines.
Out in Victorville, CA, there were a bunch of (way overbuilt for the area) houses that were model homes; they weren’t built to code. The banks took over when the builder defaulted and were ordered to bring them up to code or face fines by the city; instead they tore the homes down. …this is what the real future of this shadow inventory holds. Sale in the near future, or demolition!

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