Comments on: Predicting the Housing Future: Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Using the Case-Shiller Index to Find a Bottom. http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Tue, 06 Jan 2009 19:53:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: Mike http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18858 Mike Tue, 24 Jun 2008 04:52:59 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18858 I think that the Cal. housing market will overshoot the 40-50% down from the peak prediction. I think the market will be down at least 55% based on the option ARM resets and the economy. I have been seeing more people laid off than ever before in my 50+ years. This down turn will be more like Japan from 1990 to today. We will be suffering for over 10 years with "boat anchor" for houses. Don't catch a falling knife untio it's stopped! I think that the Cal. housing market will overshoot the 40-50% down from the peak prediction. I think the market will be down at least 55% based on the option ARM resets and the economy. I have been seeing more people laid off than ever before in my 50+ years. This down turn will be more like Japan from 1990 to today. We will be suffering for over 10 years with “boat anchor” for houses. Don’t catch a falling knife untio it’s stopped!

]]> By: Jeff C http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18844 Jeff C Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:35:17 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18844 Good article but to suggest at the end of the article that the free spender of a couple would be a "her" is a bit sexist. Also, considering that gay man can get married in California, who exactly would be the "her" in that coupling? :) Just thought I'd speak up on that point. Thanks for the excellent blog. Jeff Good article but to suggest at the end of the article that the free spender of a couple would be a “her” is a bit sexist. Also, considering that gay man can get married in California, who exactly would be the “her” in that coupling? :)

Just thought I’d speak up on that point. Thanks for the excellent blog.

Jeff

]]> By: Scott http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18777 Scott Sun, 22 Jun 2008 19:26:14 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18777 The Washington Post reports housing prices in the inner ring around DC have crept up reflecting the rise in commuting costs both in time and dollars while the outer suburbs are collapsing. Thus, as always, location, is the key to value in real estate. Given this and understanding that Southern California is not a typical eastern city with well defined downtown, it would be interesting to see just where home sales are actually occuring in the SoCal real estate market. What it may suggest is that the median price recorded in home sales is reflecting a premium for better location despite a slump in prices. That is, the real picture maybe much worse because homes in poor locations aren't selling at all and thus are not being tallied in median price statistics. As California counties are very large geographically themselves saying that the median price declined 27% in Orange County might mean it only declined 10% for homes near jobs and shopping but declined much more for homes not so well located or the sales of such homes are so few and far between as to give no indication of their present value. The Washington Post reports housing prices in the inner ring around DC have crept up reflecting the rise in commuting costs both in time and dollars while the outer suburbs are collapsing. Thus, as always, location, is the key to value in real estate. Given this and understanding that Southern California is not a typical
eastern city with well defined downtown, it would be interesting to see just where home sales are actually occuring in the SoCal real estate market. What it may suggest is that the median price recorded in home sales is reflecting a premium for better location despite a slump in prices. That is, the real picture maybe much
worse because homes in poor locations aren’t selling at all and thus are not being tallied in median price statistics. As California counties are very large geographically themselves saying that the median price declined 27% in Orange
County might mean it only declined 10% for homes near jobs and shopping but declined much more for homes not so well located or the sales of such homes are so few and far between as to give no indication of their present value.

]]> By: dutchtrader http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18772 dutchtrader Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:55:18 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18772 Ive lived in California my entire life, High temperatures during the summer are not uncommon here. And even the most aggressive global warming show small temperature changes over short periods of time. Ive lived in California my entire life,

High temperatures during the summer are not uncommon here. And even the most aggressive global warming show small temperature changes over short periods of time.

]]> By: Jes http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18769 Jes Sun, 22 Jun 2008 15:59:24 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-housing-future-los-angeles-and-orange-counties-using-the-case-shiller-index-to-find-a-bottom/#comment-18769 Are the median income figures accurate?! LA 2004: $43,518 1999: $46,452 OC 2004: $58,605 1999: $57,706 What the hell happened in LA? Median income FELL by 7% in five years??? If these numbers are accurate, it makes the bubble even crazier. Are the median income figures accurate?!
LA
2004: $43,518
1999: $46,452
OC
2004: $58,605
1999: $57,706
What the hell happened in LA? Median income FELL by 7% in five years??? If these numbers are accurate, it makes the bubble even crazier.

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