Comments on: Irrational Housing: Insiders out Early and The Duesenberry effect. http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Sun, 27 Jul 2008 09:31:56 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: Jackson Wallace http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-603 Jackson Wallace Thu, 12 Apr 2007 20:13:00 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-603 I agree with Wayne and his comments on the baby-boomers. I would add to his portrayal of doom the wars we are involved in. The boomer generation is going to face a lot of resentment from people under 40, as the generation that got the good life, at the expnse of younger people,<br/>who are going to be expected to pony up lots of tax money to cover the boomers lack of savings.<br/><br/>This will lead to enormous friction, and political manipulation. Others have mentioned it but its still true,<br/>boomers were counting on their houses for retirement! My mom turns 67 this year and she is right ahead of the boomers. In five years, the exodus begins. This housing bubble is exploding BEFORE the time when the boomers were counting on retiring and the next generation is, I believe, far poorer, in both assets and wages, though they will be paid mightily to keep the machinery running. At some point, the boomers are going to get kicked into the street, and left behind just like after the USSR collapsed. Sorry, grandpa, we cant afford you, now go die somewhere. I agree with Wayne and his comments on the baby-boomers. I would add to his portrayal of doom the wars we are involved in. The boomer generation is going to face a lot of resentment from people under 40, as the generation that got the good life, at the expnse of younger people,
who are going to be expected to pony up lots of tax money to cover the boomers lack of savings.

This will lead to enormous friction, and political manipulation. Others have mentioned it but its still true,
boomers were counting on their houses for retirement! My mom turns 67 this year and she is right ahead of the boomers. In five years, the exodus begins. This housing bubble is exploding BEFORE the time when the boomers were counting on retiring and the next generation is, I believe, far poorer, in both assets and wages, though they will be paid mightily to keep the machinery running. At some point, the boomers are going to get kicked into the street, and left behind just like after the USSR collapsed. Sorry, grandpa, we cant afford you, now go die somewhere.

]]> By: PO'ed http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-600 PO'ed Thu, 12 Apr 2007 06:03:00 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-600 <b>Somehow I doubt all these immigrants will be buying the $500,000 mansions with no-doc mortgages.</b><br/><br/>No? <br/><br/>You may be surprised to find who the desparate realtors are suckering into buying $500-$800k homes:<br/><br/>http://tinyurl.com/yql2p9<br/><br/>That's right: we have Spanish-speaking real estate agents preying on their own, apparently only worrying about their FAT commissions while pitching the American Dream of Home Debtorship.... I love the section where the Spanish-speaking agents and loan officers troll the San Jose Swap Meet from a rented booth, looking for fresh victims, at least until they're kicked out for being too annoying!<br/><br/><br/>It would be nice to think these types of practices ended after the sub-prime meltdown, but this article from today (4/11/07) suggests otherwise:<br/><br/>http://tinyurl.com/2ctkg5<br/><br/>I'm starting to think that the ONLY way to get these corrupt and greedy loan originators and reasl estate agents to cease and desist from such outrageous behavior is to have the authorities kick down the door and place them in handcuffs.... Somehow I doubt all these immigrants will be buying the $500,000 mansions with no-doc mortgages.

No?

You may be surprised to find who the desparate realtors are suckering into buying $500-$800k homes:

http://tinyurl.com/yql2p9

That’s right: we have Spanish-speaking real estate agents preying on their own, apparently only worrying about their FAT commissions while pitching the American Dream of Home Debtorship…. I love the section where the Spanish-speaking agents and loan officers troll the San Jose Swap Meet from a rented booth, looking for fresh victims, at least until they’re kicked out for being too annoying!

It would be nice to think these types of practices ended after the sub-prime meltdown, but this article from today (4/11/07) suggests otherwise:

http://tinyurl.com/2ctkg5

I’m starting to think that the ONLY way to get these corrupt and greedy loan originators and reasl estate agents to cease and desist from such outrageous behavior is to have the authorities kick down the door and place them in handcuffs….

]]> By: Crazed http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-570 Crazed Mon, 09 Apr 2007 21:33:00 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-570 Thanks Dr HB.<br/><br/>I'll wait for awhile. There isn't a need to buy something that just isn't worth it. The value of owning isn't there.<br/><br/>I don't want to be house poor, nor do I want to be a slave to a lender.<br/><br/>Thanks again,<br/>Crazed Thanks Dr HB.

I’ll wait for awhile. There isn’t a need to buy something that just isn’t worth it. The value of owning isn’t there.

I don’t want to be house poor, nor do I want to be a slave to a lender.

Thanks again,
Crazed

]]> By: sed http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-566 sed Mon, 09 Apr 2007 18:31:00 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-566 NorCal market heating up?<br/><br/>The proper analogy would be the heating process in a nuclear power plant once the cooling water has leaked out. NorCal market heating up?

The proper analogy would be the heating process in a nuclear power plant once the cooling water has leaked out.

]]> By: Dr Housing Bubble http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-564 Dr Housing Bubble Mon, 09 Apr 2007 15:32:00 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/irrational-housing-insiders-out-early-and-the-duesenberry-effect/#comment-564 irvinerenter,<br/><br/>I appreciate the link. We've talked about this many times in numerous articles but I think we all realize that to a large extent, this market is being driven by psychology as opposed to fundamentals. This coupled with a social epidemic of easy credit and nonchalance toward savings and we have our current environment. <br/><br/>lendingmaestro,<br/><br/>I think your three points are important. However I think that this train wreck may take longer than most of us expect. Imagine the analogy of slowly boiling water with a frog in it. The tightening of credit will have a major impact on this market.<br/><br/>olives,<br/><br/>This is a worldwide credit bubble from Canada, UK, Europe, and even Australia. Once the domain of local authorities and businesses CDos have given the world easy access to speculation anywhere you may live. <br/><br/>wayne,<br/><br/>Especially when many baby boomers will want to downsize. But the demographics are changing drastically. We aren't seeing the typical generational cycles because the large number of immigrants in our country. Not only that, families are opting for one child so we actually aren't funneling a new batch of new home buyers to replace the boomers. Somehow I doubt all these immigrants will be buying the $500,000 mansions with no-doc mortgages.<br/><br/>Anon,<br/><br/>I can understand your frustration. Just look at how many housing bubble blogs are out there. You are not alone. If anything, the trend is heading down. There is no rush for you to purchase right now. If you feel the need, open a MM account and consider that your downpayment fund. If you can reach 10% of the purchase price of the home, you may be ready to buy. Wait until winter of 2008. Prices won't go up, that is a certainty. Too much pressure is sending this market down. If you buy now I hate to say it but you'll lose a lot of equity in the next two years.<br/><br/>anon,<br/><br/>Good link. Let us all jump into N.Cal real estate because of a minor jump in some whacked out numbers. Please. irvinerenter,

I appreciate the link. We’ve talked about this many times in numerous articles but I think we all realize that to a large extent, this market is being driven by psychology as opposed to fundamentals. This coupled with a social epidemic of easy credit and nonchalance toward savings and we have our current environment.

lendingmaestro,

I think your three points are important. However I think that this train wreck may take longer than most of us expect. Imagine the analogy of slowly boiling water with a frog in it. The tightening of credit will have a major impact on this market.

olives,

This is a worldwide credit bubble from Canada, UK, Europe, and even Australia. Once the domain of local authorities and businesses CDos have given the world easy access to speculation anywhere you may live.

wayne,

Especially when many baby boomers will want to downsize. But the demographics are changing drastically. We aren’t seeing the typical generational cycles because the large number of immigrants in our country. Not only that, families are opting for one child so we actually aren’t funneling a new batch of new home buyers to replace the boomers. Somehow I doubt all these immigrants will be buying the $500,000 mansions with no-doc mortgages.

Anon,

I can understand your frustration. Just look at how many housing bubble blogs are out there. You are not alone. If anything, the trend is heading down. There is no rush for you to purchase right now. If you feel the need, open a MM account and consider that your downpayment fund. If you can reach 10% of the purchase price of the home, you may be ready to buy. Wait until winter of 2008. Prices won’t go up, that is a certainty. Too much pressure is sending this market down. If you buy now I hate to say it but you’ll lose a lot of equity in the next two years.

anon,

Good link. Let us all jump into N.Cal real estate because of a minor jump in some whacked out numbers. Please.

]]>