Comments on: How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust: Interview with Author John Rubino http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Sun, 12 Oct 2008 19:31:11 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: ET http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2858 ET Sun, 18 Nov 2007 02:42:52 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2858 I agreed most of John said, particularly his position the 80% off its peak by 2010. If he could say 2011, it may be better. It seems to me that all the person in this thread had a hard time to believe 80% off. Some people will say God doesn't create more land. How could it happen? Okay, sounds you have a point. Then tell me how come Tokyo housing market lost its 80%+ value in the past 15 years? Did God create more land there? How much your market losing its stream and has gone down so far at this point of time? What you guys have in your minds? 10% off at this time as NAR hope you believe. I will do a REAL TIME QUOTE for you to wake up! It is NOW 50% off for some specific markets in Orange county. Please go read my article A Real Case: Who cares about Average Price or Median Price! (II) at my web. Although I agree most of John's points, there is one thing I absolutely disagree. When he said selling your house now if you bought it in 2004-2004, he is smart. When he talked about the future protections, he isn't saying anything about real estate investment. It seems to me he is on the side advicing NO real estate purchase (sorry, I didn't read his book so that I don't know exactly his position). It it is, I will say: "John, you totally missed it here". Real estate is a home, but it is also the most tangible asset or investment ( most valuable and useful "commodity", if you choose to use a stock term). I don't believe in Gold or other commodities backed by devaluation a fiat currency. Housing is the one last forever. So buy a house when it is cheap as your real hedge against inflation as it is the conventional wisdom. Go learn how to profit from the downturn housing market by RE investing: What an agent's life is: incredible? Is it the life you want? http://activerain.com/blogsview/271826/What-an-agent-s I agreed most of John said, particularly his position the 80% off its peak by 2010. If he could say 2011, it may be better.
It seems to me that all the person in this thread had a hard time to believe 80% off. Some people will say God doesn’t create more land. How could it happen? Okay, sounds you have a point. Then tell me how come Tokyo housing market lost its 80%+ value in the past 15 years? Did God create more land there?
How much your market losing its stream and has gone down so far at this point of time? What you guys have in your minds? 10% off at this time as NAR hope you believe.
I will do a REAL TIME QUOTE for you to wake up! It is NOW 50% off for some specific markets in Orange county. Please go read my article A Real Case: Who cares about Average Price or Median Price! (II) at my web.
Although I agree most of John’s points, there is one thing I absolutely disagree. When he said selling your house now if you bought it in 2004-2004, he is smart.
When he talked about the future protections, he isn’t saying anything about real estate investment. It seems to me he is on the side advicing NO real estate purchase (sorry, I didn’t read his book so that I don’t know exactly his position).
It it is, I will say: “John, you totally missed it here”. Real estate is a home, but it is also the most tangible asset or investment ( most valuable and useful “commodity”, if you choose to use a stock term). I don’t believe in Gold or other commodities backed by devaluation a fiat currency. Housing is the one last forever. So buy a house when it is cheap as your real hedge against inflation as it is the conventional wisdom.
Go learn how to profit from the downturn housing market by RE investing: What an agent’s life is: incredible? Is it the life you want? http://activerain.com/blogsview/271826/What-an-agent-s

]]> By: Mullahs Be Gone http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2850 Mullahs Be Gone Sat, 17 Nov 2007 19:16:25 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2850 Perhaps that cigarette that this "author" smoked in that Orange County bungalow was 80% Hasheesh! This guy is even more entertaining than the fantastic (derived from the word fantasy) Illusionist himself Mike Whitney. NOTHING he is saying is original, or unheard of before (except the 80% down stuff.) For a more reasonable, substantial, and uncrazy assessment read Richard Russell. Perhaps that cigarette that this “author” smoked in that Orange County bungalow was 80% Hasheesh!

This guy is even more entertaining than the fantastic (derived from the word fantasy) Illusionist himself Mike Whitney.

NOTHING he is saying is original, or unheard of before (except the 80% down stuff.) For a more reasonable, substantial, and uncrazy assessment read Richard Russell.

]]> By: KT http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2802 KT Wed, 14 Nov 2007 22:52:14 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2802 If my house drops 80%, I'll owe $20k more than it's worth. -I can handle that. Why should I sell my house? I like my house. If I sell my house, what will I do with the money? Invest it in something that could dissappear over night? The house can drop 95% in value, and it will still be there the next day. It will still have a front porch, four bedrooms and a garden. I'f I sell, I am competing for rentals with the zillions of others, with a bunch of money that's worth less every day. Nope, I'm staying put. If my house drops 80%, I’ll owe $20k more than it’s worth. -I can handle that.
Why should I sell my house? I like my house. If I sell my house, what will I do with the money? Invest it in something that could dissappear over night? The house can drop 95% in value, and it will still be there the next day. It will still have a front porch, four bedrooms and a garden.
I’f I sell, I am competing for rentals with the zillions of others, with a bunch of money that’s worth less every day. Nope, I’m staying put.

]]> By: stunoob http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2801 stunoob Wed, 14 Nov 2007 22:51:04 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2801 #1 a 100K per year doesn't pay for a million dollar home. A friend of mine makes ~ 175k per year and has an 800k mortgage. He is stretched to the limit and took out a HELOC in late 2006 in order to pay for his Orange County Lifestyle. #2 The fact that every third family makes 100k a year doesn't account for the fact that 83k is the average household income in Irvine, CA. I believe this is one of the highest in Orange County, the home medians are also near the higest there as well. Bottom line 3x salary is where the average home should be, an average home is not a condo. A 1500 sq foot 2br should be around 250k in Irvine. Where are they? upper 500's down from mid 600's in February. #3 An 80% drop is ridiculous. I would expect more like a 55% drop in prices. That would put things in line with fundamentals. #4 NO ONE wants to know what will happen to our lovely little society out here if prices go down that much. Stock up on food and buy a gun because the hoodlums from LA who lost their shirts will be coming for frequent visits because the OC won't be able to pay for nearly the number of public services once properties are revaules and tax revenues go through the floor. The governor is already calling for spending holds (good for him). #1 a 100K per year doesn’t pay for a million dollar home. A friend of mine makes ~ 175k per year and has an 800k mortgage. He is stretched to the limit and took out a HELOC in late 2006 in order to pay for his Orange County Lifestyle.

#2 The fact that every third family makes 100k a year doesn’t account for the fact that 83k is the average household income in Irvine, CA. I believe this is one of the highest in Orange County, the home medians are also near the higest there as well. Bottom line 3x salary is where the average home should be, an average home is not a condo. A 1500 sq foot 2br should be around 250k in Irvine. Where are they? upper 500’s down from mid 600’s in February.

#3 An 80% drop is ridiculous. I would expect more like a 55% drop in prices. That would put things in line with fundamentals.

#4 NO ONE wants to know what will happen to our lovely little society out here if prices go down that much. Stock up on food and buy a gun because the hoodlums from LA who lost their shirts will be coming for frequent visits because the OC won’t be able to pay for nearly the number of public services once properties are revaules and tax revenues go through the floor. The governor is already calling for spending holds (good for him).

]]> By: Jim http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2800 Jim Wed, 14 Nov 2007 21:49:49 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/how-to-profit-from-the-coming-real-estate-bust-interview-with-author-john-rubino/#comment-2800 80% drop?! I find that very difficult to believe...I feel a 30-40% drop is realistic over the next 2-3 years...maybe 50%...based on the average income in LA county ($74k or around there?) and where the median home price would need to come back to in order for the average family to truly afford the payment under the old guidelines of 41% max debt to income ratios...80% though huh? I would love to understand more about how that number was arrived at. If that's true...even if it's not...what a GREAT time to be able to buy! I'm saving my money and buying everything I can in about 2 years! I am curious...does anyone understand how the Mortgage Insurance companies are able to afford to back the loans for these big banks? I've had short sales rejected by big banks because they stood to make more money through foreclosure and having the MI company pay the difference...I've got to imagine at some point the MI companies will not be able to do this anymore...these aren't all Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are they? 80% drop?! I find that very difficult to believe…I feel a 30-40% drop is realistic over the next 2-3 years…maybe 50%…based on the average income in LA county ($74k or around there?) and where the median home price would need to come back to in order for the average family to truly afford the payment under the old guidelines of 41% max debt to income ratios…80% though huh? I would love to understand more about how that number was arrived at. If that’s true…even if it’s not…what a GREAT time to be able to buy! I’m saving my money and buying everything I can in about 2 years!

I am curious…does anyone understand how the Mortgage Insurance companies are able to afford to back the loans for these big banks? I’ve had short sales rejected by big banks because they stood to make more money through foreclosure and having the MI company pay the difference…I’ve got to imagine at some point the MI companies will not be able to do this anymore…these aren’t all Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are they?

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