Comments on: Harvard Misses the Housing Bust Again: How Harvard Missed the Real Estate Bubble Bursting.

By: Bella

Bella — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 20:38:16 +0000

Another missing piece is that we are seeing the maturing, and coming into the prime earning years, of people who for the first time in history truly had choice in whether or not to add more humans to the planet. This has allowed families to be redefined from “dad, the woman he knocked up, and us kids who will work for free on the farm” to something grounded more in creativity, affinity, and a genuine desire to be under the same roof. Evolutionary biologists point out that people will opt for fewer children when their lives are longer and more prosperous, because you no longer have to breed them as cannon fodder in resource wars or free labor for a contracting economy.

This is related to some of the emerging demographic trends the increasing Xicano communities in the southern US, there is an increasing culture of teenage pregnancy, absent fatherhood, high birthrate, high secondary school drop-out rate, increasing disrespect for education, and so on. Disconnecting property taxes from public school support, and taxing those with kids in school would go a long way toward making people more responsible for their reproduction, and less likely to assume somebody else in the village will raise, school, feed, etc., their kids. We are constantly told how “children are our future,” but considering how much of the housing bubble inflated on the innumeracy/math illiteracy and greed of twentysomethings, I’ll make my own future, thanks.

Bel

By: Jes

Jes — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 18:27:46 +0000

I wonder which industries provide funding for the Harvard Housing Studies projects.

By: stan

stan — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:35:58 +0000

Great comment by Scott, however I have one area of disagreement. With the current choices for our next president, I see little reason to think that illegal immigration will not continue unabated. There seems to be little stomach for enforcing the law. The only way illegal immigrants are going to head home in any numbers is if they can’t find work here. Really, such a simple problem to solve. How hard can it be to set up a system where employers of illegal workers are really fined, and those working illegally are really deported? It can’t be that hard. But I can’t see Obama or McCain doing it, so we will be stuck with a huge drag on the system. The same Harvard types who say there’s no housing bubble are the same ones who say unskilled illegal immigrants are a big asset to our society despite failing school systems, closing emergency rooms and falling wages for American workers competing with them for jobs. It’s the same mentality.

By: J.J. Cabal

J.J. Cabal — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 08:08:58 +0000

The mocking of “Cassandra fears” in the above article is hilariously ironic — considering that Cassandra’s problem was not that she was wrong. In fact, her prophecies were absolutely correct. Her problem (or curse, actually), was that in spite of being right, no one would believe her (concerning the fall of Troy).
Evidently the Classical education has been neglected at Harvard, or at least by its Director for Housing Studies.

By: Scott

Scott — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 00:20:52 +0000

I think what the Harvard types are doing is thinking that, after a brief correction, the game can be restarted and things can return to ‘normal’. However I think the evidence is that the ‘game’ has ended for good and that we are entering an entirely new era. Energy costs are never going to be what they were. People are going to have get serious about funding their own retirement. Imported goods will become increasingly expensive, banks will never again make the kind of loans they made in the recent past because investors will never buy such securities again. Just as the Gilded Age died and the castles of the Vanderbilts and Hearst stand as curious relics of excess consumption by the few, the McMansions of today will become relics of excess consumption by the many. People just won’t
want to tie so much of their personal wealth up in real estate after this bust. At least I hope not. As to immigration, at least of the Latino kind, the past is not prologue. Latino immigrants were the labor force of the housing bubble. Many are going to find their employment prospects dimming considerably due to both legal and economic forces. Remittances to Mexico fell last year. Many will have no choice but to return home. While you might have been able to afford to buy a house on construction workers pay the chances of ever being able to do so on a dishwashers or leaf blowers salary are pretty remote.