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	<title>Comments on: Doing The Housing Bubble Math Dance for California.</title>
	<link>http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/doing-the-housing-bubble-math-dance-for-california/</link>
	<description>How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble</description>
	<pubDate>Sun, 07 Sep 2008 23:29:32 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: bubble_watcher</title>
		<link>http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/doing-the-housing-bubble-math-dance-for-california/#comment-103</link>
		<author>bubble_watcher</author>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Nov 2006 21:03:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/doing-the-housing-bubble-math-dance-for-california/#comment-103</guid>
		<description>This is an excellent post, Dr. Housing Bubble!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now, the next thing to do is to make a price drop / rent increase estimate that would be required to bring this $991 dollar difference into the historical norm of $170.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;To make things simple, though, you should assume no rent increases for the next few years since many flippers/home sellers are putting houses up for rent while most apartments have vacancies. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Add in a recession, and you could also have rents dropping at the same time real estate drops in price, as well.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As a sidenote, CalculatedRisk has a nice price to rent ratio chart for San Diego:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;a HREF="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2005/03/price-rent-ratio-usa-and-san-diego.html" REL="nofollow"&gt;[Link]&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;With rents unchanged, we are looking at a drop from 1.6 to 0.8 (recession), which would correspond to a 50% drop from peak prices..</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is an excellent post, Dr. Housing Bubble!</p>
<p>Now, the next thing to do is to make a price drop / rent increase estimate that would be required to bring this $991 dollar difference into the historical norm of $170.</p>
<p>To make things simple, though, you should assume no rent increases for the next few years since many flippers/home sellers are putting houses up for rent while most apartments have vacancies. </p>
<p>Add in a recession, and you could also have rents dropping at the same time real estate drops in price, as well.</p>
<p>As a sidenote, CalculatedRisk has a nice price to rent ratio chart for San Diego:</p>
<p><a HREF="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2005/03/price-rent-ratio-usa-and-san-diego.html" REL="nofollow">[Link]</a></p>
<p>With rents unchanged, we are looking at a drop from 1.6 to 0.8 (recession), which would correspond to a 50% drop from peak prices..</p>
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