Real Homes of Genius: $100k homes in Compton. Time to shop for deals in L.A. County if you don’t mind brown lawns and a touch of metal bars on the windows.

Who doesn’t like a good deal when it comes to buying real estate? Since some people believe every area in L.A. County is undergoing ubiquitous gentrification I wanted to throw some good deals your way. Now some of you might balk at the city and the bars on the window but you still get the benefit of the sun, the weather, access to beaches, all the “fun” things to do, proximity to employment, and you will be within the county itself. So what city are we talking about? Compton people! I love browsing the listings and seeing what is happening across all areas of Southern California. Over the last couple of weeks, I noticed lower priced properties popping up. End of the year cleaning. $100k for SoCal housing? This can’t be! Don’t expect HGTV perfection here but you do get bars on the windows and deferred maintenance. But with these price tags, you have a lot of room to upgrade and make this into your new gentrified palace.

Compton deals

Compton California has a population of 96,000 people. Some might not know this but Compton is one of the oldest cities in Los Angeles County being incorporated back in 1888. The typical Compton household pulls in $42,335 per year and 26 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.

Here is the first deal that popped up on my feed:

compton home 1

608 E Elm St, Compton, CA 90221

3 beds, 1 bath, 1,236 square feet

“***CALLING ALL SERIOUS INVESTORS!!—LOOK NO FURTHER!!!—BEST DEAL IN LOS ANGELES!!!—HUGE PRICE REDUCTION FOR QUICK SALE! DON’T MISS OUT!!!* Seller very motivated!!! This House is in a Nice area of Compton…It is close to major streets and shopping center and large bedrooms. This is Truly a Great House for the Price. Must see to appreciate!!!”

Are you a serious investor? If you are, pick up that freaking phone! Apparently things are so hot for investment properties that they had to drop the price on this place to make it move.

One of the funniest things I found on Google Street View for this place is that there is a “Cash 4 Houses” sign posted on a telephone pole right in front:

compton home 1 sign

How about the “Cash 4 Houses” guy calls up the current agent for this place?  Seems like a match made in heaven.

Let us look at the pricing history here:

price history 1 compton

This place sold for $369,000 back in 2005. The current list price of $165,000 is a 55 percent price reduction over the last decade. I thought prices only went up? Not always and you can ask the people living through the 7,000,000 completed foreclosures about real estate always being a simple buy and hold decision.

This home has gone through two foreclosures with one in 1997 and one in 2000. You can have this place for $165,000. Let us look at the next deal:

compton 2

2034 N Kalsman Ave, Compton, CA 90222

3 beds,2 baths,1,100 sqft

“Nice 3Bedroom 2Bath home located in the Rosewood area. The home is in need of repair so it will not qualify for FHA financing.”

Nice lawn and steel encased front door. No FHA financing for this place since we have some built up deferred maintenance. The sales history looks similar to the last place:

price history 2

This place sold in 2005 for $325,000. The current list price of $190,000 is a nice 41 percent reduction. It was listed at $140,000 back in January of this year and then the funny pricing game started. Recently they have changed the price from $190k to $180k back and forth.

So there you have it. Two good “deals” for the taking in the current housing market. You get all the benefits of SoCal that supposedly exist nowhere else on the planet: proximity to beaches, sun, L.A. County bragging rights, fantastic food, access to jobs, and most importantly, a shack to call your own.

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99 Responses to “Real Homes of Genius: $100k homes in Compton. Time to shop for deals in L.A. County if you don’t mind brown lawns and a touch of metal bars on the windows.”

  • “Compton was once a mostly black area in California, but now there are violent Latino gangs there who have declared certain areas off limits on blacks. If black families move into what the Latino gangs declare to be their city, then the blacks are driven out by being intimidated, killed or beaten.
    Attack on family in Compton latest incident in wave of anti-black violence
    A Latino gang is intimidating blacks into leaving the city that was once an African American enclave. It’s part of a violent trend seen in other parts of the L.A. area.” (L.A. Times). “Compton’s 155th Street Gang Varrio , one of the oldest and most well known of the city’s Sureño gangs, has intensified its attacks on blacks”.(Per Policmag.com)

    • It looks like Compton didn’t benefit from investor market manipulation. These prices relative to peaks bubble 1.0 are in line with the percentage drop of where all markets will land once rates go up and investors exit the market.

    • Tyrone tha Racist

      This blog is about real estate not your hate for Latinos. Blaming Latinos for Compton being shit is insane. Remember it was N.W.A. (ni**as with attitudes), not M.W.A. (Mexicans with attitudes) that promoted Compton being “gangster”. Anyways, ur an ass. Won’t waste another minute on an old racist. “I remember Compton was safe and had the best schools in the state before them damn Mexicans started scaring us black folk.” Tyrone iii.

      • Everything Tyrone III stated was obtained from reasonably credible sources, each of which were cited. Reality is what it is.

      • Tyrone III blamed “Latino gangs” not “Latinos.” How is that racist?

      • Tyrone tha Racist

        Responder, send the link to these quotes please. I’m sure you looked them up prior to backing up this clown. How are you co-signing? You must be Tyrone is disguise. Good job. Raylan, really? Only Latino gangs caused Compton to suck? Black gangs are fine though. What a joke. To the guy below this post. Every surrounding city in Los angeles was beautiful in the 1960s.

      • Tyrone tha Racist: I’m not backing up anyone. I was simply stating that the information posted by Tyrone III came from legitimate sources. Yes, I looked up the articles Tyrone III referenced prior to posting. I’ve never come across any upstanding person so staunchly defending gang members.

        Since you are too indolent to do a 2 second Google search, here are the links:
        http://articles.latimes.com/2013/jan/25/local/la-me-0126-compton-20130126
        http://www.policemag.com/blog/gangs/story/2013/02/the-compton-155th-street-gang-la-calle-loca.aspx

      • Hands up, don’t shoot, I can’t breath. Black lives matter. Sorry if that offends you Mara Salvatrucha.

      • Tyrone tha Racist

        No one is defending gang members. I’m saying it’s not only Latino gangs but also African American gangs that ruin shit. T iii, All lives matter, you loser, not just black lives. Proved my point, racist. Look up black gangs in Compton, you might find an article or 100k on them. Gangs suck, Compton sucks, the end.

    • Compton was a beautiful suburb of LA in the 1960’s. I know, I was there.

    • The exact same thing happened in ultra rich prime Venice California in the late 80’s early 90’s. This is a signal that gentrification is on its way! I think I am going to snap up both of these deals with all cash offers over asking!!!

      • I’ll bet you’ll be able to flip ’em in 3 weeks to trust fund kids and movie stars for 10X what you buy them for too! Compton is the new prime real estate.

    • It’s not about black vs white never has. It’s about rich vs poor. Kareem Abdul-jabbar did an opinion piece in time magazine recently

      • “It’s not about black vs white never has. It’s about rich vs poor. Kareem Abdul-jabbar did an opinion piece in time magazine recently”

        Actually, in the past, it was about black vs. white. It’s less so now, but still there are situations, like with the police.

  • “You get all the benefits of SoCal that supposedly exist nowhere else on the planet: proximity to beaches, sun, L.A. County bragging rights, fantastic food, access to jobs, and most importantly, a shack to call your own.”

    Doc, it is nice and good for presenting all the advantages but you missed the most important benefit – DIVERSITY….!!!!

    If the rest of the bloggers didn’t forgive me in the past, they will not forgive you either.

  • benshalombernanke

    Actually I do mind. I love the discount but I don’t want to get mugged either. No thanks to loud reggaeton or rap music at 3am or shot fired at night. Im not disrespectfull or anything but it is what it is. Ive walk the street in these areas, it is actually not that bad but I will never belong in this part of town. I don’t move to the USA to live in da hood. I did not live in da hood in my old country.

    • Ben Shalom,

      Look at the bright side – the nice mediterranean weather that is the “envy of the world”….:-))) You forgot that all the people with money from the north want to move there. Where else can you find wether like that unless you move to Tijuana???!!!…

  • same house in gardena is $350-400,000. or $600-800,000 in torrance depending on which torrance high you go to. north west south or torrance high

  • This latest article has to be a bit of ‘tongue in cheek’. But, seriously, the fact that both of these homes sold for the mid-$300’s in 2005, means suckers do exist and home-buying feeding frenzies do occur, especially in Southern California! But, seriously, location, location, location, still is the golden rule of real estate, and much of Southern California simply doesn’t meet the criteria, especially houses with bars on windows!

  • Compton hasn’t been a joke for over 40 years, as in its murder rate is right up there with Iraq’s and Afghanistan’s during the war. It’s a seriously dangerous and violent place–the black and Latino gang wars of the 1980-1990 helped push the total number of homicides in L.A. County to 2000.

    So forget the PC crap, Compton is a violent hell hole. And the violence isn’t caused by Chinese immigrant parents and their UCLA attending children. Yeah, that’s right, race does matter.

    • No, economics, individual decisions and opportunity matter. Race only matters to dipshits like you and people like LA Police Chief Parker who implemented institutional racism when the black crime rate was no higher than white. Or maybe the segregationists who kept blacks from owning property anywhere in LA BUT South Central…

      If race does matter it should be pointed out that THERE ARE MORE WHITES ON PUBLIC ASSISTANCE THAN MINORITIES IN THIS COUNTRY. All the losers who make themselves feel superior by judging others based on race have no place in a rational financial discussion. That goes for black racists like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson as well as tools like you.

      • Ah yes, the “race card”, as in “race” doesn’t matter. If you’re a certain race, then you are automatically given a “Get Out Of Jail” pass for FREE! Certain races are not held accountable for their actions.

        If you are WHITE, then you are bad. If you are ASIAN, you are bad. In fact, whites and Asians have caused all of the problems for the special “race”. If you’re a Conservative White, then you are REALLY bad and the cause of all of the problems in the universe.

        It’s called “privilege” and it’s only given to the “special races”.

        Funny how this endless cycle of idiocy just makes things worse for these “special races”. The rest of the world is blowing by America because we have a huge proportion of Americans who are just a drag on our society. These “special races” aren’t pulling their own weight and aren’t contributing to society except for filling the prisons and having children out of wedlock who never get educated and become employed like they are supposed to do.

        China and Japan don’t tolerate such behavior. Hey, there might be a China and Japan aspect to this blog!

      • “THERE ARE MORE WHITES ON PUBLIC ASSISTANCE THAN MINORITIES IN THIS COUNTRY.”

        NZ, are you talking in absolute numbers or percentages?
        You did not specify.

      • son of a landlord

        >> THERE ARE MORE WHITES ON PUBLIC ASSISTANCE THAN MINORITIES IN THIS COUNTRY. <<

        That's been a cliche for so long, people have come to believe that it's true. But it no longer is. I read several years ago, maybe even a decade ago, that Blacks & Hispanics have passed the 50% mark on people on public assistance.

        Do you have any current data?

        And even when your statement was true, long ago, it was still misleading and irrelevant because blacks and Hispanics were disproportionately more more likely, as a percentage, to be on public assistance.

      • “THERE ARE MORE WHITES ON PUBLIC ASSISTANCE THAN MINORITIES IN THIS COUNTRY.”

        I was just looking at some numbers posted by the National Center for Education Statistics. If you’re talking about just the sheer number of whites that are on public assistance, you have to take into consideration that (non-Hispanic) whites make up 62.6% of the population of this country still, according to the US Census Bureau.

        You can see the figures for yourself here:
        http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2012/2012026/tables/table_32.asp

        And here:
        http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

      • nzero, this is off this topic, but in your view is the specuvestor phenomenon due to the fed and twist lowering treasury bonds to below 4% or so and billions of dollars then chasing a higher yield in RE?

      • Mattika Rosenthal

        Ok. I grew up in Redondo Beach. In the 40’s-50’s the prices there were the same as anywhere else. Leimert Park, north of Inglewood, and Los Feliz
        were the best neighborhoods.
        Do you people even know that about 100 years ago,
        L.A. County only had three high schools?
        1. Redondo
        2. Manual Arts
        3. Beverly Hills
        I know, because I graduated from Redondo.
        I am a total realist. Does any one even remember the
        Civil Rights Movement? Ever see the movie “Gentlemen’s Agreement”
        What changed and destabilized existing neighborhoods?
        Have you ever seen an old map of Los Angeles County?
        I mean, before the freeways were built?
        How did Inglewood, Baldwin Hills, Lynwood, and surrounding areas change from middle-class White to middle class Black almost overnight?
        The entire city of Carson (take a drive through some
        of the beautiful neighborhoods sometime) with it’s beautiful
        homes (circa mid-60’s) should tell you something.
        Carson, is a diverse city where everyone gets along.
        There are Whites, Blacks, Filipinos, Hispanics, Koreans,
        people from India, and legal immigrants from all over.
        BUT, THE NEWER PARTS (what was not farmland, that was
        for malls and the industrial parks located there)
        WERE CONSTRUCTED IN RESPONSE TO “WHITE
        FLIGHT” because of the WATTS RIOTS.
        Many of you that are not natives of LA, probably
        don’t know that.

  • ghetto

    • Nope. Up-and-coming prime location with great weather, great freeway access, diverse ethnic restaurants, and plenty of room to stretch out. Young artsy types are moving in in droves. Pretty soon there will be an expensive coffee shop there! Get in while the getting is good! It’s Southern CA. It can only go up in value because everyone wants to be in Compton.

      • All it takes is for some hipster artisan something-or-other shop to take a chance and open in Compton and watch the gentrification begin.

      • Nice point.

        According to a number of posters here, all of SoCal is prime world class real estate. Add one Chipotle and one Starbucks to the neighborhood, and these Compton shacks are $2 Million dollars!!!! All due to the Mediterranean weather! WOW……

      • Mattika Rosenthal

        Exactly. Once the Hipster grads from UCLA and SC,
        start getting serious about home ownership, Compton
        will become a new “in” neighborhood. That’s exactly happened in Venice, downtown LA,
        parts of San Pedro, Long Beach, and Chinatown.One Hipster makes a leap of faith and purchases something down there, many will soon follow.
        That is exactly what happened to all the other areas mentioned
        above. They weren’t called Hipsters back then, they were Hippies with money. Because you need money and good credit history to buy anything. Remember that.
        Redondo, Hermosa, and Manhattan Beach or anywhere “on the hill” & surrounding cities, forget about it.
        You’re only going to buy something there is if you have all cash and it’s over 1 million for the most part. Sometimes if you put half down and get someone to guarantee the mortgage (like your
        Beach City Parents) and can close in 14 days or less, you might be able
        to buy in Torrance or Gardena.
        Otherwise start looking east of Pomona or Riverside,
        and start looking forward to a nice long commute.
        The jobs are here.

  • Compton = a great location with horrible people.

    Florida = poor mans California.

    Anyone else got anything?

    • Carlos from Oxnard, the Newport Beach

      Yes, Compton is no good, we all agree. Come to Oxnard, for $600k you can live like in Newport Beach.

    • I think something can only be called a “poor man’s” anything if it’s trying to be just like something else. For that reason alone, I wouldn’t call Florida “a poor man’s California” for most people. FWIW, I find Florida to have a much higher quality of living than California, so again, how could Florida be a poor knock-off if it provides a better experience?

      Beyond just cheaper housing, Florida is cheaper on most other key metrics as well. The University of Florida is ranked better than your average UC and is actually cheaper than the Cal State system. Tiger Woods became a resident of Florida during his first week as a professional in order to enjoy the 0% state tax rate. (Sales tax is 6% for most counties.)

      For me, I left California because there’s a war on success. If you aren’t tracking it, look at who actually has to foot the bill for tuition at the UCs nowadays–it’s basically only the rich. (Look up the “Blue and Gold scholarship”.) Prop. 30 was when the majority decided that there should be a continual wealth transfer rather than structural reform. (Watch for a proposition to extend the “temporary” taxes in 2016.) Look at the school district payment structure from the state under Brown–that’s why all of the “rich” school districts are selling tiles and bricks and memberships in order to finance paltry non-core programs.

      California is a great place to buy a home if you’re rich and not taking primary residence in the state. But there’s a reason why there’s a large wealth migration taking place from the Connecticuts and New Jerseys and Illinoises of the world down to Florida–it’s because fiscal policy matters, and somebody will have to eventually pay for all of the pensions and reduced government services as debts build. The “rich” just see the writing on the wall the earliest and move their capital accordingly.

      • KR, too much TRUTH in one posting!!!….The liberal friends in CA can not take so much at once.

        Why are you “mean” and try to bust the myth of forever government freebies? In there mind, the government is their god with unlimited resources forever. There are no consequences in their mind for whatever course of action they take.

      • son of a landlord

        Florida has its own problems. Ghettos, meth, drug cartels, corrupt politicians, horrid humidity, shady realtors, and mosquitoes galore.

        Florida is California with worse climate (hot AND humid), but a better tax policy (no income tax). Other than that, both states have their good and bad areas. (It’s been a while since I visited Florida.)

      • It looks like UCLA beats UF

        http://colleges.findthebest.com/compare/273-860/University-of-California-Los-Angeles-UCLA-vs-University-of-Florida-UF

        And who in the world wants to live in Gainesville, FL for ANYTHING? Eew! That right there nulls your argument.

        And yes there is “war on success” but that will spread everywhere. And capital will continue to flow elsewhere, as it always does. At the same time, anyone who thinks the US will move away from social policies and risk Ferguson, MO situations spreading everywhere is delusional. “Always keep your soldiers fed”.

        As capital flows to safehavens (for tax purposes) the people will continue to LIVE, WORK, and PLAY in CA. As they do now. Why? Because this is the weather and entertainment capital of the world. Nevada, Delaware, and Montana are also safehavens but nobody flocks over there to live en masse. They only use the system to their advantage, as they should.

        The “system” is a man made illusion anyway, and then you die. Period. So get yours while you can and live the best you can, by any means necessary. And don’t spend that time in snow, humidity, hurricanes, pollen, or any other adversity unless it’s a quick weekend to the slopes.

      • CA War on the Rich? Are you kidding me?

        How ’bout war on the poor and middle class. Sales tax, local taxes and fees, poor government services, stupid things like no plastic bags at grocery stores, internet taxes to support emergency services. The rich are just fine.

      • In the country of Greece, land of Mediterranean weather, SFRs with sea/beach views sell in the $100K range.

      • Mattika Rosenthal

        I left California as well. After 12 years of living out of state,
        I came back about a year and a half ago.
        Of course I came out here on trips and vacations 2 to 3 times a year,
        so it wasn’t total culture shock when I came back here to live again.
        All I can say is there’s no place in the world
        like Southern California. And there’s no place in Southern California
        like the Beach Cities and the South Bay.
        Better climate, better air, access to everything,
        safety, best police and fire departments and
        medical facilities. My high school, Redondo,
        is beautiful, just like a college campus! One of the top
        rated high schools in the country.

    • Florida has gators. That’s GOT to count for something!

  • Yes please stay out of Compton, watts, east la, south gate, etc. Flippers are making too much money and we hate sharing it with racists. Get a clue, there are $400k homes in compton. Put down NWA and The Chronic and drive around some areas…or better yet keep thinking Compton is ghetto. You know what I just heard some shots ring out. WEST SIDE!

    • Only a non-L.A. native would believe that Compton isn’t anything other than a ghetto. Violence in L.A. is a REAL problem and the stupid people who are thinking that they are moving into gentrifying neighborhoods which are only HOODS are crazy.

      There are so many places in this town where I wouldn’t even think of driving to in the dark, much less live, where I see hipsters hanging out. They all think that gangs are like “West Side Story”. You know, where the boys do pirouettes while singing about Maria and the Sharks.

      I know a couple who bought a home just down the street from the Mar Vista Gardens housing project–gang banging city, but they are oblivious.

      Hopefully for these people, Los Angeles County will become a concealed carry county soon. Good news is that ammo is finally becoming readily available.

    • Put down the chronic and turn off the NWA? Sir, I go to Compton for the simple pleasure of blasting NWA while I smoke the chronic.

      • Please Dr…can we go all Facebook and get a “thumbs up” button so I can thumb this up 1000 times?!?!?!

  • We’ve seen this before where activity in low quality areas such as Compton picks up toward the end phase of a housing price mania. This happened in the 80’s/90’s and between the dot.com bubble blow-up and 2007-8 crash. It’s not quite to the same scope as the most recent memory although there have been eerily similar pricing run-ups. In some cases, the same properties that crashed all of the previous parties are back for another round and you can easily see how some of them have been flipped multiple times in multiple manias!

    What’s also sad and amazing is how levered some of the end-user buyers are found out to be upon foreclosure.

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Hawaiian-Gardens/21528-Belshire-Ave-90716/unit-4/home/7489703#property-history

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Inglewood/328-E-Plymouth-St-90302/home/6436601#property-history

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Wilmington/722-W-D-St-90744/home/7677015#property-history

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Inglewood/10824-S-Osage-Ave-90304/home/6482565#property-history

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Compton/916-W-Palmer-St-90220/home/7351135#property-history

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Lennox/4915-W-112th-St-90304/home/6487655#property-history

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Inglewood/660-W-Arbor-Vitae-St-90301/home/6455083#property-history

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Lynwood/11638-Louise-Ave-90262/home/7366071#property-history

  • There’s another important advantage to that first house: It’s just downwind from the Alameda Corridor. Imagine the olde-tyme romance of listing to a train trundle slowly past, at any time of the day or night. Better yet, you can truly feel you’re a part of the American Dream, as the cargo from America’s #1 and #2 ports pass within earshot of your front porch! It’s like being transported to different worlds, as you read the many languages on the containers flowing past. Buying this house isn’t just sound financial strategy, it’s downright patriotic!

  • “Shocking California poverty rate now highest in the nation, worse than D.C. and Florida
    New California rate is 23.5 percent — up from 16.3 percent
    Higher than D.C. and Florida, at 23.2 and 19.5 respectively, Visible difference: California has pockets of poverty like Compton in South Los Angeles, just moments away from the wealth and privilege of Rodeo Drive in the opulent enclave of Beverly Hills”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2235059/California-highest-poverty-rate-America-beating-Florida-D-C–latest-census-shows.html

    • Nobody cares because it’s always nice outside and there is always something uber-cool to do. Life is short, that’s all that matters.

      • Me thinks the stench of the shit you’ve been shovelin’ has overwhelmed your senses. Weather capital…that’s a good one.

  • The Kalsman Avenue house is down 41% from its 2005 price and the Elm Street house is down 54% from its 2005 price; and that’s assuming they sell for their asking prices. Is housing starting to tank in 2014?

  • Compton is the new Brooklyn. (except there are no coffee shops, art studios, etc.)

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/15/aja-brown-compton-new-mayor-sees-brooklyn

  • It is a relatively small area, less then 100k people. For its size, 75k -100k is the 4th most dangerous city in the USA.

    Violent crime there is the majority of the criminal activity. The last year I can get exact numbers is 2012

    Murders – 18
    Rapes 47
    Robberies 390
    Burglaries 820
    Assaults 641
    Thefts 1,232
    auto thefts 885
    Arson 40
    229 registered sex offenders

  • This probably matters to no one else who reads this blog, but the Compton skate park is pretty cool. Fun kidney bowl and locals there have always been cool to me (I’m an overweight, balding old white 40 something, so probably more a novelty to the locals.) Kids there are always engaging and no bad vibes. Compare this to Houghton skatepark not too far away in North LBC, where I don’t necessarily get vibed, but has way more trash and you gotta watch your back certain times of the day.

    Crime withstanding, I find it an interesting measure of a community character how the young locals treat me at their park.

    (Compare this with richy-rich Costa Mesa, where the kids there are spoiled little pricks.)

    • Volcom skatepark in Costa Mesa has “spoiled lil’ pricks” that come from other surrounding cities to skate a great little park since Newps doesn’t have one. Orange Coast College is right down the street, so some of the twenty-something students skate between classes, local high school skaters have their own varsity skate teams now and practice at the park for contests, and the local mini groms just learning to skate at the City’s recreation skate camps. “The old skool” guys rule the big bowl and the peanut bowl, come to the Church of Volcom Sunday mornings to see the real CM skaters… Ride On!

  • George HW Bush lived in Compton before his family colonized Texas. Just sayin’.

  • I lurk a lot and I post just a little, someone on this site reference fabian4liberty on youtube so I checked him out and he seems real knowledgeable…if you want to check him out: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLudpyn37dihGp-YA6GIkvWNm8ZCtsEfhf

    Fabian makes claim that prices will rise on the back on the new loans and ultimately crash hard in 2016-18

    I came across this youtube vid and this guy seems as confident as can be that housing is going to go nuts over the next few years 700% increases…but does not see a dip…

    can someone decipher if this guy really knows what he is talking about, I just do not see how it is possible…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKq1STLI17g

    different perspectives obviously anyone care to compare and let me know if one of these guys is way off base?

    • 700% only ?? what a conservative guy, I was thinking closer to 1200-1500% in the inner city and 1500-2000% in the nicer areas. I think you should buy now or be priced out forever

    • Bryan, Nothing is with certainty but I pretty much profess what this man says in early 2014. I thought the Fed’s would look to relax loan standards in early 2015 and that interest rates would rise in mid 2015 causing a short term run on housing, the fear factor syndrome.

      I also have been saying for some time now many homes are lingering and sellers are anxious right now for a offer. Most sellers I talk to don’t want to chance that even with loan standards and short sale buyers coming back in to risk not selling, so they are ripe for a offer before 2015 or very early 2015.

      As far as a major recession in 2016 or 2017, yes if the dollar shows weakness as the world’s standard or even (forbid that this happens) is not the standard then yes all heck breaks loose and America’s standard of living gets much worse, the middle class is in total pancake collapse.

      I still reserved my prediction on this occurrence till mid May, by then we will have a better idea of the 2016 and beyond scenario, take care

    • Bryan, Sorry I didn’t review Alan Kendall I believe his name is. All I can say is I did exactly he same graph back in my early 20’s and based on that I bought the dip and sold the high. From the 60’s to 2006 I pretty much like a stock saw when the low’s were obtained bought and the tendency for real estate to downgrade and sold from past history and trends.

      When I made my last purchase in 2006 I expected to hold and sell in 2015, and that is exactly what I plan to do, not buy but sell. In 2006 I bought at the tail end of 06′, I got a good buy but of course 07′ was the big get when all prices starting the major downturn. I will not make what I did on purchases in the long run run of buying and selling but I will make money again and call it quits no matter what happens after 2015.

      For the younger folks, you can play in the league, you must study all the information on every property you are looking into, if it make sense then go ahead. Always get the 30 year loan, lowest rate you qualify for and remember buy a home you may have to live in longer then 7 years or longer, if the seas get rough you won’t have to bail on it.

      As far as 700% increase 2016 to 2027, that is big number, but I do believe you aren’t going to see 50k cars come down to 20k and 500k house come down to 150k.

      • thanks for the responses…I am still not sure exactly what to make of it…I am in the camp that hopes to see a collapse, I got burned bad as a first time buyer in 2007 with fear and trembling that if I did not buy I would never be able to buy and I got lost my home…I want to get in the market again because I understand ultimately owning is the best thing to do but at these prices it is questionable whether that is true…I feel as though fundamentals were correct in 2010-2011 and I want to wait until incomes fall in line overall prices and affordability. I have been on the wrong side of the equation before and I am bound and determined not be on the wrong side again. I have a nice down payment all ready to go that far exceeds the 20% I intend to put down and so I suppose I will wait for a while, I rent a nice place in great neighborhood at $600 below market rent so that seems to be a huge benefit and the owners do not seem to be intent on raising the rent or selling, but playing the waiting game is frustrating…like waiting in an odd housing purgatory…damn the FED and their policies blowing this bubble right back up.

  • did someone say real estate only goes up? Btw, everybody hold on tight cause things for real estate, banking , finances, stocks and bonds and the “recovering” economy about change. Happy New year.

  • Tyrone the plageriser!

    Tyrone copied his statement word to word from this article! He’s a real know it all!

    http://yourblackworld.net/latino-gangs-launch-attacks-on-black-families-in-compton-to-drive-them-out-of-the-city/

  • That first house is 0.9 miles away from where many people think is the real ‘Grove Street’ (East Coast Cocoa Street) in Grand Theft Auto San Andreas.

    Just like CJ…’I need some serious paper, fast.’

  • Areas like Compton, Lawndale, Gardena, Lennox scare people into multiple offers on 2M teardowns in Manhattan Beach.

    • I live in Gardena. There is no gang warfare or shots being fired at least in my part of the hood. Just don’t send your kids to lausd Gardena high. 50% black 50% Mexican. In the eighties it was 1/3 Asian but they all graduated went to college and never came back. Their parents are still here in the nicer parts of Gardena

  • @QE…I do agree, chances of the USD not being the world’s standard is very, very low, the world pretty much would never want that to happen.

    • Some people have a hard time swallowing that the illusion will never stop. They say they want it too, they think they will be the benefactor. Not true. Economy crashes, life will suck for almost everyone.

      Just live man! Live your life, enjoy it, stop worrying about economics all the time people. Torch up a dabber, sip a Sam Adams or Modelo, and enjoy yourself. This is California.

      • Yeah Realist, why not take your own advice and stop worrying about what we’re worrying about. Life is too short to be commenting on a housing skeptic’s blog. You could light up a spliff and be out there enjoying all of that weather and entertainment you’re missing out on by spending time here.

  • Los Angeles is reluctantly now being forced to stop misreporting its crime statistics. So much for all that reality-based “glitz and glam” and more like the same old shit and sham just like anywhere else. But this place really is different – on paper.

    http://www.latimes.com/local/crime/la-me-lapd-crime-stats-20141217-story.html

    “The changes come after a Times investigation this summer that found the department reported a significant number of serious violent crimes as minor offenses. The errors artificially lowered the city’s official crime figures.”

    I’m sure it’s not lost on some readers of this blog how various commenters over the years heralded Los Angeles’ crime statistics as an assuring sign of renaissance.

    I wonder how many housing speculators bidding up certain marginal neighborhoods of the city used said crime statistics for their decision making. Garbage in, garbage out.

    Maybe Compton could take a page from the city of Los Angeles’ playbook and fudge its crime numbers to fool the unobservant into believing it’s safer than it really is.

    • Excluding rent control areas, rent rarely gets raised on quality tenants. Emphasis on quality.

      My friends 4/2 house in Ontario hasn’t gone up a penny in 5 years because the owners own it free and clear, and the renters take care of it.

    • Like most statistics, this relentless onslaught of articles citing rising rent prices seem made up or are based on asking prices.

      I recently moved. I had more call backs from landlords than I ever had in the past on places I inquired about. One person that was trying to rent their underwater home asked me to name my price, which I did and they accepted, however it was not my first choice so I still didn’t take it. The home I ultimately accepted I negotiated $400 lower than asking. Also, if you look at all these new “luxury” apartment buildings most of the balconies are empty and some of these buildings that have been complete for months have permanent ads on “hip/hype” websites and even Craigslist.

      Don’t believe the hype!

  • Two tales of this place really is different.

    Because when the same book on the same place in the same ghetto has been written before, make more talk about the weather. Now $999 off!:

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/9508-S-Hoover-St-90044/home/7295818

    Because when a $3,265,000 discount is not enough after five months for the clamoring to get into SoCal at any price global elite, reiterate so-called international world class city status:

    https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/1853-Sunset-Plaza-Dr-90069/home/7119892

    Not all is lost though, one can always continue to subvert focus away from the message by honing in on the messenger.

    • You’re just mad you can’t afford it.

      And before you attack me, I’d rather live under a freeway underpass here if I had too instead of moving anywhere else. This is the greatest city on earth, and you’ll never freeze being homeless. Another of the unending benefits of the weather and entertainment capital of the world.

      – haters gon’ hate –

      Let’s not forget the mantra of the blog. “HOW I LEARNED TO LOVE SOCAL AND FORGET THE HOUSING BUBBLE”

      • “Greatest city on Earth…” You’ve clearly never lived in any of the truly great cities on Earth and some of the average ones. LA is good. I choose to live here for several reasons, but let’s not get over the top.

      • Reallist…as a former long time resident of So Cal I can assure you that many of New Years Eve night, sleeping on the street to get a good view of the Rose Parade, we froze our quester off?

  • Yet another FOMC presser and no sign of a new QE. What happened to QE forever and the Fed won’t let housing fail?

  • Some people think it’s cool to live where the minority is the majority. Here’s what you have to look forward to when purchasing a home in one of these areas: homeless, constant car alarms , garbage strewn streets, unkept yards & homes, broken down cars, illegal drug use, general sense of un-caring towards neighbors and the community. Some may call this “diversty”.

    • You forgot a few:
      – helicopters flying overhead
      – trash cans sitting in driveways
      – grafitti
      – perpetual yardsales (the people who are out every weekend selling clothing and toys from their front yard) 🙂

      • son of a landlord

        Even the good parts of Santa Monica have their share of police helicopters at night — and SM is infested with perpetual yard sales, in both the good and bad areas. Take a walk through SM, north of Wilshire, on a weekend. A bargain hunter’s dreamscape.

    • A quick look around the block of a lot of the recent vintage flip jobs in ghetto neighborhoods reveals everything one must know. Couches on the front porch are never a good sign. Those people must simply like having a front seat to the weather and entertainment capital of the world.

  • 300 points up today! Go baby go! The Fed doesn’t have the guts to raise rates and destroy their balance sheet, or ability to service debt.

    Rates will never rise, mark these words. They can’t, just like Japan.

    The only thing that will stop this global gravy train of slush funds is a WW3.

    • Ok, your words have been marked. Hope you stick around for dinner.

    • “”The only thing that will stop this global gravy train of slush funds is a WW3.””

      Oh, I don’t know about that, Mr. Realist. Germany could turn their back to the EU and form a new, gold-backed currency with my man Vlad, let’s call it the Euruble. That would stop your “gravy train” cold in its tracks, overnight.

      Then Germany and Russia could announce a military union to go along with the economic union, with Vlad promising to arrest and hang every CIA and NSA spy in Germany. The US occupation forces in western Germany are routed in a week, any forces not captured or killed forced to retreat, like cowards, to France. At the same time, cut-off the 25,000 US forces in Afghanistan, forcing them to surrender or starve. Thus, no world war, its checkmate, Fed and USA lose.

      The people of western Europe would then demand solid currency, an end to inflation and demand a healthy deflation (for generations). They would want Vlad
      to come and hang all the CIA/NSA spies that are in their countries, too. It’s called contagion, Realist.

      It’s when the lightning strikes.

  • Bubble in Compton. Great. That’s the last thing Compton needs. I lived there many years ago and never had any problems.

    You’d probably be better off buying a house for 1000.00 in Detroit and waiting it out for 20 years.

  • During a visit to LA a few years ago, I left the airport and directly hit Compton. Seemed like a nice neighborhood.

    Steve Sailer on LA gentrification

    http://isteve.blogspot.com/2014/04/white-gentrification-of-south-central.html

    • A big problem with South-Central is that it’s so big (51 square miles just in L.A. city — about as big as the entire city of San Francisco) that gentrifiers can’t just drive around and spot each other, the way we could in Chicago where the potentially gentrifying neighborhoods were quite small in area. Gentrifiers need to link up with each other online and argue out where they are headed.
      Quote from the Steve Sailer on LA gentrification link:

      “Another problem is that South-Central is flat and flat land tends to give wealthier white people in Los Angeles the creeps. They can picture the mob coming for them, waving torches. Flat land is more convenient to live on than the hills that ambitious Angelenos have clung to since the movie business got rolling.”

  • Two members of a latino street gang called Compton Varrio 155 pleaded guilty to hate crimes. The gang attacked black residents and scrawled graffiti on homes, businesses and churches, according to the indictment.

    http://abc7.com/archive/9293506/

  • Elm Street ain’t no joke. Elm Street Piru territory.

  • I’m from Germany. In the 90’s, Compton was a Part of our Lifestyle. NWA and Eazy E and s Lot of another Rapper gave us Something, which should make U being proud to be from Compton.
    It’s not any City, it ist the City of my 90s. I don’t have enough Money to live in Compton, so U Out there bei proud.

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