Comments on: California Housing Fiscal Emergency Part Deux: California Housing and Economic Dynamics in Massive Recession. http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Thu, 09 Feb 2012 06:16:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: St Alphonzo http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28574 St Alphonzo Sat, 06 Dec 2008 19:25:42 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28574 Nice list. #14 Planet of the Alt-Apes could be the worst. Unfortunately, the trade wars will start soon. We've lost at least 2M jogs this year and look out below. They say they know how to keep this from turning into a depression, but they still thing that all they gotta do is print more money a spread it like a crop duster. The surgeons don't understand the problem, so everything they amputate will make the problem worse down the road. Nice list. #14 Planet of the Alt-Apes could be the worst. Unfortunately, the trade wars will start soon. We’ve lost at least 2M jogs this year and look out below. They say they know how to keep this from turning into a depression, but they still thing that all they gotta do is print more money a spread it like a crop duster. The surgeons don’t understand the problem, so everything they amputate will make the problem worse down the road.

]]> By: willwill http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28460 willwill Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:56:05 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28460 "People are missing the point. It is all about income and jobs. It always was about this." Right on the money as usual DHB. Housing prices are a function of income, not the other way around despite the foolishness of the last 10 years. Median income has not risen in recent years and therefore the value of the median home has not risen. The prices of the median home rose for the last 10 years in los angeles, but it was only because of foolish loans and specu-vesting. The home values have ultimately remained the same as have incomes. In other words, take away the crazy mortages and crazy real estate and Wall Street investors and we will be right back to 1997 in terms of prices. And then you may want to go one step further perhaps and take all of the real-estate mania incomes that are quickly drying up out of the median income equation (real estate brokers, mortgage brokers-how's Countrywide doin?, construction-how's KB doin?, crown molding/Italian marble/pergo floor sellers-how's Home Depot donin?, stainless steel appliance/flat screen sellers-how's Circuit City/Best Buy doin?, new car/Hummer sellers-how is the automotive industry doin?. Take these out and you may perhaps see that median income has actually declined...which may mean that home values have actually fallen. And at the end of the day, home prices will fall, and they will perhaps fall beyond 2000 levels and even beyond 1997 levels. We borrowed our way out of a couple of recessions, and now it's time to pay up. Now...what was that everyone was saying about real estate only going up?! “People are missing the point. It is all about income and jobs. It always was about this.”

Right on the money as usual DHB. Housing prices are a function of income, not the other way around despite the foolishness of the last 10 years. Median income has not risen in recent years and therefore the value of the median home has not risen. The prices of the median home rose for the last 10 years in los angeles, but it was only because of foolish loans and specu-vesting. The home values have ultimately remained the same as have incomes. In other words, take away the crazy mortages and crazy real estate and Wall Street investors and we will be right back to 1997 in terms of prices.

And then you may want to go one step further perhaps and take all of the real-estate mania incomes that are quickly drying up out of the median income equation (real estate brokers, mortgage brokers-how’s Countrywide doin?, construction-how’s KB doin?, crown molding/Italian marble/pergo floor sellers-how’s Home Depot donin?, stainless steel appliance/flat screen sellers-how’s Circuit City/Best Buy doin?, new car/Hummer sellers-how is the automotive industry doin?. Take these out and you may perhaps see that median income has actually declined…which may mean that home values have actually fallen. And at the end of the day, home prices will fall, and they will perhaps fall beyond 2000 levels and even beyond 1997 levels. We borrowed our way out of a couple of recessions, and now it’s time to pay up. Now…what was that everyone was saying about real estate only going up?!

]]> By: latesummer2009 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28442 latesummer2009 Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:01:03 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28442 Dr. HB. Yet, another epic blast ! If only people could climb out of their denial and see the facts that, you present so clearly. 1) Bubble Over 2) Prices dropping like a rock 3) Jobs disappearing 4) Incomes dropping 5) People not spending 6) Banks not lending 7) People going broke 8) State going broke 9) Auto Companies going broke 10) Huge Financial Corporations going broke 11) U.S. Govt going broke 12) Record Foreclosures 13) Record Housing Inventory 14) Upcoming Loan Resets.for Alt-A & Prime in 2009...etc..etc... 15) Oh, I almost forgot, the Govt declares that maybe. we have been in a recession. since 2007. What really disturbs me though is ,your line graph on LA County Housing from 2000-2008. Take a look at the change in slope, once housing peaked. It accelerates to the downside much steeper than the upside. If you extend it out, we should be at $a median price of 200,000 by the end of 2009. Two other points about that graph. 1) The housing boom realy started back in 1997, so we probaly need to roll it back 3 years and 2) Real Estate Busts usually overshoot to the downside. So where might that take us? $150,000 ??? What amazes me is, how people can be so myopic and believe these "macroeffects" won't have an effect on their city, zip code, area or block. Why, because it's different there. They will be the ones who suffer the most. Remember ,the last dominoes to fall usually fall the hardest in real estate. http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com Dr. HB. Yet, another epic blast ! If only people could climb out of their denial and see the facts that, you present so clearly.

1) Bubble Over
2) Prices dropping like a rock
3) Jobs disappearing
4) Incomes dropping
5) People not spending
6) Banks not lending
7) People going broke
8) State going broke
9) Auto Companies going broke
10) Huge Financial Corporations going broke
11) U.S. Govt going broke
12) Record Foreclosures
13) Record Housing Inventory
14) Upcoming Loan Resets.for Alt-A & Prime in 2009…etc..etc…

15) Oh, I almost forgot, the Govt declares that maybe. we have been in a recession. since 2007.

What really disturbs me though is ,your line graph on LA County Housing from 2000-2008. Take a look at the change in slope, once housing peaked. It accelerates to the downside much steeper than the upside. If you extend it out, we should be at $a median price of 200,000 by the end of 2009. Two other points about that graph.

1) The housing boom realy started back in 1997, so we probaly need to roll it back 3 years
and
2) Real Estate Busts usually overshoot to the downside. So where might that take us? $150,000 ???

What amazes me is, how people can be so myopic and believe these “macroeffects” won’t have an effect on their city, zip code, area or block. Why, because it’s different there. They will be the ones who suffer the most. Remember ,the last dominoes to fall usually fall the hardest in real estate.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

]]> By: zh http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28409 zh Thu, 04 Dec 2008 02:23:23 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28409 Haha, this post is like the drums in the mines of Moria -- "doom, doom, doom, doom." California is a sitting duck, just like the greedy dwarves who dug too deep, and I for one cannot *wait* till the goblins come. Haha, this post is like the drums in the mines of Moria — “doom, doom, doom, doom.” California is a sitting duck, just like the greedy dwarves who dug too deep, and I for one cannot *wait* till the goblins come.

]]> By: Tony http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28402 Tony Wed, 03 Dec 2008 23:46:18 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-fiscal-emergency-part-deux-california-housing-and-economic-dynamics-in-massive-recession/#comment-28402 Outstanding post. I agree, it is all about jobs. Please check out Mike's link to ShadowStats.com; it's a very provocative website and, in my opinion deserving of a link. An article (originally published in Harper's) that gives a little more context to William's work can be read here: http://tampabay.com/news/article473596.ece. Start throwing those numbers around with the trade deficits and the unfunded federal entitlement programs and it gets scary real fast. You mostly focus on the housing market but I hope that in a future post you address the numerous underfunded pension funds. It's a nasty problem that will put a lot of hurt on some vulnerable folks. Outstanding post.

I agree, it is all about jobs. Please check out Mike’s link to ShadowStats.com; it’s a very provocative website and, in my opinion deserving of a link. An article (originally published in Harper’s) that gives a little more context to William’s work can be read here: http://tampabay.com/news/article473596.ece. Start throwing those numbers around with the trade deficits and the unfunded federal entitlement programs and it gets scary real fast.

You mostly focus on the housing market but I hope that in a future post you address the numerous underfunded pension funds. It’s a nasty problem that will put a lot of hurt on some vulnerable folks.

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