Comments on: California Financial Dreaming: 5 Exhibits Showing Why California will be in a recession until 2011: Revenue Projections, Housing Inventory, Unemployment, Toxic Mortgages, and Consumer Psychology. http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-financial-dreaming-5-exhibits-showing-why-california-will-be-in-a-recession-until-2011-revenue-projections-housing-inventory-unemployment-toxic-mortgages-and-consumer-psychology/ How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble Sat, 31 Jul 2010 22:55:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Markus Arelius http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-financial-dreaming-5-exhibits-showing-why-california-will-be-in-a-recession-until-2011-revenue-projections-housing-inventory-unemployment-toxic-mortgages-and-consumer-psychology/comment-page-1/#comment-35126 Markus Arelius Mon, 23 Mar 2009 17:53:44 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=1553#comment-35126 Awesome post. I got to it late. One frequent refrain from the California real estate industry is how "everyone wants to live here". Given what we know about the future economic, housing and job outlook in the state, do we also see the possibility of a "state exodus" in the future to more affordable areas of the country where there are jobs, better schools (California's elementary schools are already ranked 46th in the union and the budget crisis and teacher firings will only make this worse), and perhaps a less consumption-based, "millionaire poser" way of life? Awesome post. I got to it late.

One frequent refrain from the California real estate industry is how “everyone wants to live here”. Given what we know about the future economic, housing and job outlook in the state, do we also see the possibility of a “state exodus” in the future to more affordable areas of the country where there are jobs, better schools (California’s elementary schools are already ranked 46th in the union and the budget crisis and teacher firings will only make this worse), and perhaps a less consumption-based, “millionaire poser” way of life?

]]> By: Sabin Figaro http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-financial-dreaming-5-exhibits-showing-why-california-will-be-in-a-recession-until-2011-revenue-projections-housing-inventory-unemployment-toxic-mortgages-and-consumer-psychology/comment-page-1/#comment-34920 Sabin Figaro Fri, 20 Mar 2009 02:50:11 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=1553#comment-34920 @ rose - you certainly have a way with words! @ rose – you certainly have a way with words!

]]> By: compass rose http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-financial-dreaming-5-exhibits-showing-why-california-will-be-in-a-recession-until-2011-revenue-projections-housing-inventory-unemployment-toxic-mortgages-and-consumer-psychology/comment-page-1/#comment-34873 compass rose Thu, 19 Mar 2009 05:12:28 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=1553#comment-34873 Another note on the budget/tax/employment theme. As better-paying jobs are being replaced with lower-paying ones (where they're being replaced at all), the tax base will further shrink, as will these wage-earners' expectations, sense of confidence, and willingness to spend money/pay sales taxes. We saw this in the Bay Area during the tech bubble burst. ~ But Comrade Blutown has it right. California is the Bubble State, actually more like the Froth 'n' Foam State, with bubbles upon bubbles upon bubbles. And it all comes back to simple things like wind and weather. ~ I was watching the local University of Washington public TV station the other day while doing some little chore or other. A climate change researcher from I think it was U of Arizona was showing data trends for drought in the western US. ~ To put it simply, the last worst drought prior to the current one all over the SW, including the Imperial Valley and Central Valley (agriculture cornucopias), was several orders of magnitude less severe than the current one. And projected drought conditions by 2030 are expected to be exponentially worse, year after year after year, between now and then. WA State is open minded about climate change research, and watching the numbers and trends carefully, because of the likelihood that even with the western North American mega-drought spreading up here over the next two decades, we're going to get a couple zillion bubble-headed Californians up here...still unable to understand the concept of living within one's means. ~ We've already got plenty of these Ex-CA Lifestyle Nomads in our 'hood, though they're not nearly as vocal as they were this time last year about their megamillion-dollar state of CA pension fortunes...nor the upscale consumerist culture they transplanted to this poorer enclave so they could live out their retirement dream of lording their lifestyle over others. ~ rose Another note on the budget/tax/employment theme. As better-paying jobs are being replaced with lower-paying ones (where they’re being replaced at all), the tax base will further shrink, as will these wage-earners’ expectations, sense of confidence, and willingness to spend money/pay sales taxes. We saw this in the Bay Area during the tech bubble burst.
~
But Comrade Blutown has it right. California is the Bubble State, actually more like the Froth ‘n’ Foam State, with bubbles upon bubbles upon bubbles. And it all comes back to simple things like wind and weather.
~
I was watching the local University of Washington public TV station the other day while doing some little chore or other. A climate change researcher from I think it was U of Arizona was showing data trends for drought in the western US.
~
To put it simply, the last worst drought prior to the current one all over the SW, including the Imperial Valley and Central Valley (agriculture cornucopias), was several orders of magnitude less severe than the current one. And projected drought conditions by 2030 are expected to be exponentially worse, year after year after year, between now and then. WA State is open minded about climate change research, and watching the numbers and trends carefully, because of the likelihood that even with the western North American mega-drought spreading up here over the next two decades, we’re going to get a couple zillion bubble-headed Californians up here…still unable to understand the concept of living within one’s means.
~
We’ve already got plenty of these Ex-CA Lifestyle Nomads in our ‘hood, though they’re not nearly as vocal as they were this time last year about their megamillion-dollar state of CA pension fortunes…nor the upscale consumerist culture they transplanted to this poorer enclave so they could live out their retirement dream of lording their lifestyle over others.
~
rose

]]> By: gael http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-financial-dreaming-5-exhibits-showing-why-california-will-be-in-a-recession-until-2011-revenue-projections-housing-inventory-unemployment-toxic-mortgages-and-consumer-psychology/comment-page-1/#comment-34865 gael Wed, 18 Mar 2009 22:55:08 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=1553#comment-34865 Mortgage rates likely to sink on Fed actions http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090318/ap_on_bi_ge/mortgage_rates_consumers;_ylt=AldXSr6hM9WNsxUUMy4IEx.yBhIF WASHINGTON – If you've got a good job, solid credit and your home's value hasn't fallen dramatically, you're likely to benefit from the Federal Reserve's extraordinary action Wednesday to help drive mortgage rates to historic lows and revive the U.S. housing market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ That's awesome, isn't it? With the highest unemployment rate and falling home prices this should really help out CA.... Mortgage rates likely to sink on Fed actions

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090318/ap_on_bi_ge/mortgage_rates_consumers;_ylt=AldXSr6hM9WNsxUUMy4IEx.yBhIF

WASHINGTON – If you’ve got a good job, solid credit and your home’s value hasn’t fallen dramatically, you’re likely to benefit from the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary action Wednesday to help drive mortgage rates to historic lows and revive the U.S. housing market.

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That’s awesome, isn’t it? With the highest unemployment rate and falling home prices this should really help out CA….

]]> By: Marcy http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-financial-dreaming-5-exhibits-showing-why-california-will-be-in-a-recession-until-2011-revenue-projections-housing-inventory-unemployment-toxic-mortgages-and-consumer-psychology/comment-page-1/#comment-34857 Marcy Wed, 18 Mar 2009 18:36:45 +0000 http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/?p=1553#comment-34857 I wanted to pop in and point out one area that seems to have slipped by, as it usually does. The unemployment rate is actually far higher than 10.1% if using the exact same method as was used during the Great Depression. Why should that method be used now? In short, because of all the finance talking heads and politicians who use the unemployment rate figures from then, as some sort of 'proof' that this isn't so bad at all. U3 is the only data currently being used, when U6 was what gave the famous 25% from the thirties. U6 places the nation just under 15% right now, revised downward on the 6th of March from just above 20%. Even still, it isn't accurate. The figures are reached by conducting telephone surveys and unemployment filing, and reporting from large companies. Smaller companies are not required to report, and a great many laid off folks never file for unemployment. Using my own friends and family as example, of the 25 persons I personally know who have lost their jobs in the past 3 months, not a single one has filed for unemployment, and only one worked for a large corporation. This isn't a partisan issue. That sort of specious trolling and pot-stirring has no place here, or anywhere. It was not solely one party that brought down the economy; greed and lack of accountability did, and there's enough of that to go around on all sides. I wanted to pop in and point out one area that seems to have slipped by, as it usually does. The unemployment rate is actually far higher than 10.1% if using the exact same method as was used during the Great Depression. Why should that method be used now? In short, because of all the finance talking heads and politicians who use the unemployment rate figures from then, as some sort of ‘proof’ that this isn’t so bad at all. U3 is the only data currently being used, when U6 was what gave the famous 25% from the thirties. U6 places the nation just under 15% right now, revised downward on the 6th of March from just above 20%. Even still, it isn’t accurate. The figures are reached by conducting telephone surveys and unemployment filing, and reporting from large companies. Smaller companies are not required to report, and a great many laid off folks never file for unemployment. Using my own friends and family as example, of the 25 persons I personally know who have lost their jobs in the past 3 months, not a single one has filed for unemployment, and only one worked for a large corporation.

This isn’t a partisan issue. That sort of specious trolling and pot-stirring has no place here, or anywhere. It was not solely one party that brought down the economy; greed and lack of accountability did, and there’s enough of that to go around on all sides.

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