Comments on: A Comprehensive Look at the Southern California Housing Market: 60,000 Properties Listed on the MLS but over 100,000 in Shadow Inventory. California and Nationwide Median Home Price Trends since 1968. Say Good-Bye to Option ARMs.

By: Partyboy

Partyboy — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:23:06 +0000

@Dfresh,

I don’t really understand what you mean by saying the strategic defaulters are beating the banks to it. What I am saying is that the banks are in competition with each other to sell they properties they have taken back because of a default. People who strategically default (or default for any reason at all) are not selling their homes, they are losing (or giving) their home to the bank.

I do wonder if a bank put all of it’s inventory on the market if it would drop prices and cause even more people to strategically default.

@ YoSig,

I agree with you that collusion is a better way to describe the banks banding together, not really a conspiracy.

By: Matt

Matt — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 04:06:15 +0000

I believe that falling rents will destroy house prices in Southern California. Landlords can’t play the shadow inventory game because there is no federal bailout for them. There are so many apartment vacancies and as every month goes by I am seeing asking rents going down as the landlords are getting desperate to get someone in. On top of that, there are many commercial properties for lease and there is no shadow inventory with them either. The deflation in rents and commercial leases will severly impact property values.

By: Doug N

Doug N — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 03:31:32 +0000

“Sorry, but its obvious that this blog is dedicated more to what could happen, than what is happening.”
—
On the contrary, Kiki, the record shows that this blog has been stunningly accurate in predicting trends.
You might consider the possibility of the government ATTEMPTING to continue to manipulate markets, and being unable to do so, having squandered the hard earned good name and good faith of the government bequeathed upon us by our forefathers.

By: Doug N

Doug N — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 03:18:35 +0000

California has some serious structural problems that not only do not bode well for real-estate, but for the state itself.
California tallies 12% of the population of the USA, but accounts for 33% of the welfare caseload!
California is losing 3,000 citizens/week to places like Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada.
(few of these people are in the aforementioned welfare demographic, many of whom are those who pay the taxes for said social welfare programs)
Unemployment hovers around 40% in agricultural areas devastated by the Government imposed drought.
The State Budget and Calpers are both in dire straits.
There is more, but clearly, a rebounding economy capable of absorbing the housing stock is not on tap anytime soon.

By: Obamanation

Obamanation — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:50:34 +0000

If there is one thing alone that shows how dire things are, the Fed has held interest rates a 0% for a very long time and did not even indicate that they will raise them next meeting–just some ambiguous Feduendo. Bull or Bear–nobody knows which direction this will go next, but it’s obviously a house of cards and all the jokers in the deck can’t hold it up forever.

Dow top at 10,000 and blood money moving to oil futures, despite drastically lowered demand, giant surpluses and summer driving season is over. I also read there is already more than enough heating oil for a normal US winter, so only fiat money gushing into oil futures will drive naked options through the roof again. That should be a big help to a recovering economy…think I’ll put some steaks on the grill…